Editor's Note

Alphabet weighed on the Nasdaq-100: the account rose 4.87%

On Thursday the market reacted to the Microsoft and Alphabet results released after the previous close and to the macro data. Alphabet fell 12.64% after quarterly earnings and revenue below expectations and negative free cash flow, renewing concerns about artificial-intelligence spending. QQQ fell 1.42% to 715.34 and the Nasdaq-100 1.38%, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.30%, while the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 1.20%: most index members advanced and the decline was concentrated in the largest companies. Amazon fell 4.25% ahead of its results and Broadcom 1.94%; Meta Platforms rose 1.96% and Apple 1.48%. The advance estimate showed U.S. GDP grew at a 3.4% annualized rate in the third quarter (consensus 3.1%); the September PCE price index rose 0.5% on the month and 3.6% on the year, core PCE 0.3% and 3.1%. The 2-year Treasury yield fell to 4.61% and the 10-year to 4.98%. After the close Amazon fell about 6% in extended trading on results below expectations; that move was not part of the session result.

Volatility rose after three sessions of declines. VIX rose 0.29 points to 17.20 and VXN 1.40 points to 25.18; 30-day QQQ implied volatility (own calculations) rose from 20.75% to 21.50%, and the skew index from 27.8 to 30.4. VIX/VIX3M closed at 0.888 (prior 0.880); on the Convexa scale the regime stayed Normal. QQQ closed 0.70% below the model zero-gamma level (720.41), so the negative-gamma modifier returned.

The account closed the session 4.87% higher, against a 0.38% decline in SPY. The main positive contribution came from the upper side of the options structure, which gained as QQQ fell; that side was increased during the session. The lower side of the structure reduced the gain. The upside wings and the short-dated protection lost value; the 29 October protection was closed or expired at a small loss, and short-dated protection was rolled to the 30 October expiry. The revaluation of the euro cash balance added a small positive contribution. Week to date (26–30 October) the account was up 18.36% (SPY +1.24%); month to date it was down 24.46% (SPY +0.88%), and since the start of the public record on 5 August the result was +16.24%, against −0.03% for SPY.

At the close the weekly QQQ straddle priced a move of ±1.50% to the Friday 30 October expiry (range 704.58–726.10), against ±1.49% a session earlier. Ahead were the Chicago PMI at 09:45 ET and the weekly QQQ expiry on 30 October, the ISM manufacturing index on 2 November at 10:00 ET and Apple results on 2 November after the close.