Technical Analysis
QQQ fell 0.33% to 743.57 on Oct 13 on higher volume (28.7 million shares versus 25.1 million). The Nasdaq-100 lost 0.31% to 30,569.48, while the broad market was flat: SPY −0.01% to 778.01, the S&P 500 −0.02% to 7,805.45 and equal-weight RSP +0.05%.
The trend held: QQQ stayed 0.30% above its rising 20-day (741.34) and 2.34% above its 50-day (726.55), so all six trend horizons on QQQ and SPY remained Bullish. RSI(14) eased to 54.6. Equal-weight QQEW fell 0.47%, a broader decline than in the largest index members, most of which rose; SPCX lost 4.21%.
Breadth for Oct 13 was not computed in this run (n/a).
Main technical conclusion: a second day of pullback narrowed the cushion above the 20-day to 0.30% without damaging the trend structure. A close below 741.34 would turn the short-term regime Neutral; 762.86 remained the record high.
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Fundamental Analysis
Treasury trading resumed after Columbus Day with yields lower across the curve on Oct 13: 2-year 4.79% (−1 bp versus October 9), 10-year 5.21% (−3 bp), 10-year real 2.88%. Over five sessions the 10-year fell 10 bp.
Banks opened the third-quarter season: Goldman Sachs and Citigroup topped profit estimates, JPMorgan posted a rare profit miss and Wells Fargo's net interest income came in below forecasts. With the S&P 500 at 19.1 times forward earnings (FactSet, October 9), the equity risk premium returned to +0.03 pp. High-yield spreads stood at 311 bp (Oct 12), 40 bp wider over 20 sessions.
Our fundamental scorecard improved to −2 from −4 on six components, still Moderately Unfavorable. Market-implied Fed expectations remained n/a.
Main fundamental conclusion: lower yields lifted two scorecard components, while real rates above 2.75% and Brent's 20-session gain kept the backdrop unfavorable. September CPI was scheduled for October 14, with PPI and retail sales on October 15.
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Volatility
Regime. Options firmed as the Nasdaq-100 slipped 0.31% on Oct 13: VIX rose 0.06 to 15.27, VIX9D 0.31 to 11.99 and VXN 0.30 to 21.14. The Nasdaq premium over the broad market widened to 5.87 points, while CBOE SKEW eased to 154.74. Source: Cboe.
Short versus long volatility. VIX/VIX3M rose to 0.850 (0.8502 exactly), right at the 0.85 boundary, so the regime moved from Calm to Normal; a VIX close below 15.27 would return it to Calm. VIX9D/VIX stood at 0.785, with no event modifier.
Nasdaq volatility. QQQ 30-day implied volatility rose 0.28 points to 18.62% while realized volatility was little changed (RV20 15.03%), widening the premium over realized to 3.59 points. The October 14 CPI expiry traded at 20.94% against 15.30% for Oct 19, and our skew index rose to 29.4 from 28.1. Source: own calculations. Session of 2026-10-13.
Principal warning. On our model, net GEX stayed negative at −$1.12 billion per 1% move, with zero gamma at 745.43 and QQQ 0.25% below it, so gamma remained transitional. Our expected move to the Oct 16 expiry was ±1.36% (±1.43% a session earlier); a close below 741.70 would trigger the negative-gamma modifier. These are model estimates, not observed positions.
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