Performance shown reflects the actual historical results of the private Convexa strategy for the periods stated. SPY is provided solely as a comparative benchmark and has a materially different risk profile. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance Methodology →
Editor’s Note · 19 October 2026
Market and time worked together
Technology rebounded and fear eased. On Monday the Nasdaq-100 gained 1.17% after a difficult week, VIX fell 1.55 points to 18.44, and on the Convexa scale the volatility regime moved from Tense back to Normal (VIX/VIX3M 0.941).
The account turned positive within the first hour of trading and kept a positive result into the close. Two forces did the main work, in almost equal measure: the directional move of the market helped the strategy noticeably, and premium decay added as much over time.
Working against it were the sharpness of the move (Gamma) and volatility (Vega): implied volatility across the book rose during the day. Their pressure was weak, however, and both supporting forces outweighed it. Against the backdrop of a rising Nasdaq-100, the day was favourable for short volatility.
The calendar ahead. Tuesday brings September housing starts and Netflix results after the close, Wednesday Tesla and Meta, and Friday 23 October the weekly QQQ options expiry. The Fed is in its blackout period until the 27–28 October meeting.
For information only. Describes the author's own account. Not investment advice or an offer. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author is not licensed.
Editor’s Note reflects the author’s market perspective at the time of publication and should be read as commentary, not investment advice.
Market
Session of 19 October 2026
Technical Analysis
QQQ closed at 718.36 (+1.21%). SPY closed at 766.48 (+0.42%).
Trend horizons: short Neutral, medium Neutral, long Bullish.
Nasdaq-100 share above the 50-day average: n/a (NDX/S&P breadth not computed in this run).
Main technical conclusion: horizons follow section 2.9 of the methodology (price versus the average, and the five-session slope where the scale uses it).
10-year yield closed at 5.15% on 19 October. Real 10-year 2.80%.
Fed funds range 3.75–4.00%. Three-meeting path n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available).
Fundamental scorecard: Moderately Unfavorable (-2 on 5 components).
Coming sessions: 2026-10-19 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct): 29, down 3 points, lowest since June 2012; 2026-10-20 08:30 Housing starts and building permits (Sep); 2026-10-20 before open General Motors earnings; 2026-10-20 after close Netflix earnings (16:01 ET); SpaceX results also scheduled for Tuesday; 2026-10-21 after close Tesla and Meta Platforms earnings (also IBM, Texas Instruments, Lam Research); 2026-10-22 08:30 Initial jobless claims; 2026-10-22 10:00 Conference Board Leading Economic Index (Sep); 2026-10-23 09:45 S&P Global flash PMIs (Oct); 2026-10-23 10:00 University of Michigan consumer sentiment, final (Oct); 2026-10-23 QQQ weekly options expiry.
Regime. NDX closed at 29529.35 (+1.17%). VIX 18.44 (−1.55). The volatility regime was Normal (prior Tense).
Short versus long volatility. VIX/VIX3M closed at 0.941.
Nasdaq volatility. Weekly expected move to 23 October was ±2.01% (ATM straddle / spot); skew index 32.5 (prior 36.7); 10-day realized 18.41%. Source: own calculations.
Principal warning. Distance from QQQ to the model zero-gamma level is −1.99%. Dealers long calls / short puts versus clients; call gamma positive, put gamma negative. Not observed positions.