Performance shown reflects the actual historical results of the private Convexa strategy for the periods stated. SPY is provided solely as a comparative benchmark and has a materially different risk profile. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance Methodology →
Editor’s Note · 20 October 2026
Protection absorbed the gain in the core
On Tuesday the market rotated away from technology again. The Nasdaq-100 slipped 0.13% while the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 1.15%. QQQ closed at 717.63 after trading as low as 710.39, about 1.1% below the prior close, early in the session. VIX eased 1.13 points to 17.31 and VXN 0.34 points to 25.22; on the Convexa scale the volatility regime stayed Normal (VIX/VIX3M 0.912).
The account closed the session 0.17% lower, against a 0.34% gain in SPY. The low point of the day came during the morning sell-off. The account recovered through the afternoon as implied volatility declined, and premium decay worked in favour of the core of the strategy throughout the session.
That gain was absorbed by the protective options. The same-day hedges expired worthless as QQQ finished close to its prior close, and the weekly hedges lost value as volatility fell. Net of fees, the two effects nearly offset each other.
The calendar ahead. Wednesday is the heaviest day of the week for the Nasdaq-100: Tesla and Meta Platforms report after the close, alongside IBM, Texas Instruments and Lam Research. The weekly QQQ straddle priced a move of ±1.76% to the Friday 23 October expiry, down from ±2.01% a day earlier. The Fed remained in its blackout period ahead of the 27–28 October meeting.
For information only. Describes the author's own account. Not investment advice or an offer. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author is not licensed.
Editor’s Note reflects the author’s market perspective at the time of publication and should be read as commentary, not investment advice.
Market
Session of 20 October 2026
Technical Analysis
QQQ closed at 717.63 (−0.10%). SPY closed at 769.05 (+0.34%).
Trend horizons: short Bearish (prior Neutral), medium Neutral, long Bullish. The 20-day average turned lower while QQQ closed below it.
Nasdaq-100 share above the 50-day average: n/a (NDX/S&P breadth not computed in this run).
Main technical conclusion: horizons follow section 2.9 of the methodology (price versus the average, and the five-session slope where the scale uses it).
10-year yield closed at 5.12% on 20 October. Real 10-year 2.77%.
Fed funds range 3.75–4.00%. Three-meeting path n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available).
Fundamental scorecard: Moderately Unfavorable (-2 on 5 components).
Coming sessions: 2026-10-21 after close Tesla and Meta Platforms earnings (also IBM, Texas Instruments, Lam Research); 2026-10-22 08:30 Initial jobless claims; 2026-10-22 10:00 Conference Board Leading Economic Index (Sep); 2026-10-23 09:45 S&P Global flash PMIs (Oct); 2026-10-23 10:00 University of Michigan consumer sentiment, final (Oct); 2026-10-23 QQQ weekly options expiry.
Regime. NDX closed at 29490.28 (−0.13%). VIX 17.31 (−1.13). The volatility regime was Normal (unchanged).
Short versus long volatility. VIX/VIX3M closed at 0.912.
Nasdaq volatility. Weekly expected move to 23 October was ±1.76% (ATM straddle / spot); skew index 29.5 (prior 32.5); 10-day realized 17.79%. Source: own calculations.
Principal warning. Distance from QQQ to the model zero-gamma level is −2.15%. Dealers long calls / short puts versus clients; call gamma positive, put gamma negative. Not observed positions.