Performance shown reflects the actual historical results of the private Convexa strategy for the periods stated. SPY is provided solely as a comparative benchmark and has a materially different risk profile. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance Methodology →
Editor’s Note · 22 October 2026
A technology sell-off and a jump in volatility hit the account
On Thursday investors moved out of technology. The Nasdaq-100 fell 2.90% and QQQ 2.86% to 704.47; for the Nasdaq Composite it was the worst day since June. The S&P 500 lost 1.21%, while the equal-weight S&P 500 rose 0.73%: the pressure was concentrated in the largest companies. Meta Platforms fell almost 7% despite a strong quarterly report, as investors focused on the scale of its future AI infrastructure commitments. Amazon, Nvidia, Broadcom and chipmakers broadly followed. Higher oil prices on Middle East tensions added to the unease, while demand for Treasuries pulled the 10-year yield down 17 basis points to 4.96%.
Volatility rose sharply. VIX gained 2.35 points to 19.03 and VXN 4.30 points to 28.72; 30-day QQQ implied volatility (own calculations) rose from 21.51% to 25.49%. VIX/VIX3M climbed to 0.946, just below the Tense threshold of 0.95; on the Convexa scale the regime formally stayed Normal.
The account closed the session 17.70% lower, against a 1.18% decline in SPY. Most of the loss came from short long-dated puts: the market decline and the rise in implied volatility increased their value at the same time. Gains on the short calls offset only part of that loss. The structure was partly adjusted in the middle of the session. Month to date the account was down 33.37%; since the start of the public record on 5 August it was up 2.53%, against −0.73% for SPY.
At the close the weekly QQQ straddle priced a move of ±1.44% to the Friday 23 October expiry. Friday brings the flash PMIs and the final University of Michigan sentiment reading. The Fed meets on 27–28 October and remained in its blackout period.
Editor’s Note reflects the author’s market perspective at the time of publication and should be read as commentary, not investment advice.
Market
Session of 22 October 2026
Technical Analysis
QQQ closed at 704.47 (−2.86%). SPY closed at 763.96 (−1.18%).
Trend horizons: short Bearish (unchanged), medium Neutral, long Bullish. QQQ closed below both its 20-day and 50-day averages.
Nasdaq-100 share above the 50-day average: n/a (NDX/S&P breadth not computed in this run).
Main technical conclusion: horizons follow section 2.9 of the methodology (price versus the average, and the five-session slope where the scale uses it).
Regime. NDX closed at 28958.69 (−2.90%). VIX 19.03 (+2.35). The volatility regime was Normal (unchanged), just below the Tense threshold.
Short versus long volatility. VIX/VIX3M closed at 0.946 (prior 0.891).
Nasdaq volatility. Weekly expected move to 23 October was ±1.44% (ATM straddle / spot); skew index 29.3 (prior 26.9); 10-day realized 22.85%. Source: own calculations.
Principal warning. Distance from QQQ to the model zero-gamma level is −3.71%. Dealers long calls / short puts versus clients; call gamma positive, put gamma negative. Not observed positions.