Performance shown reflects the actual historical results of the private Convexa strategy for the periods stated. SPY is provided solely as a comparative benchmark and has a materially different risk profile. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance Methodology →
Editor’s Note · 21 October 2026
The rally worked against the account
On Wednesday investors moved back into technology. The Nasdaq-100 rose 1.13% and QQQ 1.05% to 725.20, ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.58%) and the equal-weight S&P 500 (+0.36%). The gains were led by SpaceX after a strong quarterly report, by Tesla ahead of its own release and by chipmakers led by Nvidia. VIX eased 0.63 points to 16.68 and VXN 0.80 points to 24.42; on the Convexa scale the volatility regime stayed Normal (VIX/VIX3M 0.891).
The account closed the session 0.53% lower, against a 0.53% gain in SPY. The rally worked against the upper side of the options structure: its repricing outweighed the gain on the lower side. The same-day protective options expired worthless, and the weekly ones lost value as volatility declined. Net of fees, the day ended negative.
Two large Nasdaq-100 companies reported after the close. Meta Platforms posted 26% revenue growth and fourth-quarter guidance above expectations; Tesla beat earnings estimates, but its shares turned lower in extended trading. At the close the weekly QQQ straddle priced a move of ±1.36% to the Friday 23 October expiry, down from ±1.76% a day earlier. Thursday brings jobless claims and the Leading Economic Index, Friday the flash PMIs and the final University of Michigan sentiment reading. The Fed remained in its blackout period ahead of the 27–28 October meeting.
For information only. Describes the author's own account. Not investment advice or an offer. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author is not licensed.
Editor’s Note reflects the author’s market perspective at the time of publication and should be read as commentary, not investment advice.
Market
Session of 21 October 2026
Technical Analysis
QQQ closed at 725.20 (+1.05%). SPY closed at 773.09 (+0.53%).
Trend horizons: short Bearish (unchanged), medium Neutral, long Bullish. QQQ closed just below its 50-day average and below a falling 20-day average.
Nasdaq-100 share above the 50-day average: n/a (NDX/S&P breadth not computed in this run).
Main technical conclusion: horizons follow section 2.9 of the methodology (price versus the average, and the five-session slope where the scale uses it).
Regime. NDX closed at 29822.52 (+1.13%). VIX 16.68 (−0.63). The volatility regime was Normal (unchanged).
Short versus long volatility. VIX/VIX3M closed at 0.891.
Nasdaq volatility. Weekly expected move to 23 October was ±1.36% (ATM straddle / spot); skew index 26.9 (prior 29.5); 10-day realized 19.55%. Source: own calculations.
Principal warning. Distance from QQQ to the model zero-gamma level is −0.68%. Dealers long calls / short puts versus clients; call gamma positive, put gamma negative. Not observed positions.