Direction outweighed time
On Tuesday, 13 October, the account closed −1.49% versus −0.01% for SPY. Since 5 August it returned +73.98% versus +1.10%.
The index level barely moved, but participation diverged. The S&P 500 finished flat, the Nasdaq-100 fell 0.31%, and QQQ lost 0.33% to 743.57 on rising volume. Equal-weight QQEW fell 0.47%, while RSP gained 0.05%.
The decline in QQQ weighed on the position more than premium decay supported it. QQQ 30-day implied volatility rose from 18.34% to 18.62%, and the implied move to 16 October narrowed from ±1.43% to ±1.36%. VIX/VIX3M rose to 0.850, moving the volatility regime from calm to normal.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 bp to 5.21%. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reported above estimates; JPMorgan came in below.
Editor’s Note reflects the author’s market perspective at the time of publication and should be read as commentary, not investment advice.
← All Editor’s Notes