1. Rates & cost of capital
Treasury yields as of October 9 (no session on October 12): 2Y 4.80%, 5Y 5.02%, 10Y 5.24%, 30Y 5.60%; 10Y real 2.91%; breakeven 2.33%; 2s10s 44 bp; 10Y −4 bp over five sessions.
2. Fed
Target range 3.75–4.00%. Market-implied path for the next three meetings: n/a. Speakers: Waller (Oct 13), Bowman (Oct 14), Warsh (Oct 15).
3. Valuation & equity risk premium
S&P 500 forward P/E 19.1 (FactSet, Oct 9); forward earnings yield 5.24% against a 5.24% 10-year — ERP −0.004 pp. Nasdaq-100 forward P/E n/a.
4. Earnings
FactSet (Oct 9): Q3 EPS growth 29.6%; 19 companies reported, 16 beat on EPS. NTM EPS +1.94% over four weeks. No top-10 NDX reports on October 12.
5. Credit
HY OAS 315 bp (Oct 8), +45 bp over 20 sessions; IG OAS 82 bp.
6. Commodities & dollar
Brent $125.44 (EIA spot, Oct 6; FRED not updated), +18.21% over 20 sessions. DXY n/a.
7. Macro data
No U.S. macro releases were scheduled for October 12 (Columbus Day).
Week ahead (ET)
- Oct 13: Waller 03:45; JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs before the open; Wells Fargo, Citigroup, Johnson & Johnson (time unconfirmed).
- Oct 14: CPI (Sep) 08:30; Beige Book 14:00; ASML, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America.
- Oct 15: PPI (Sep), retail sales (Sep, advance) 08:30; TSMC; Warsh 23:30.
- Oct 16: industrial production 09:15; monthly OPEX.
- Oct 19: no major events on the carried-over calendar.
Fundamental Scorecard
| Component | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ERP (EY − 10Y) | −0.004 pp | −1 |
| 10Y real | 2.91% | −2 |
| 10Y, 5-session change | −4 bp | 0 |
| NTM EPS revision, 4 weeks | +1.94% | +2 |
| HY OAS, 20 sessions | +45 bp | −1 |
| Fed, 3 meetings | n/a | excluded |
| Brent, 20 sessions | +18.21% | −2 |
| Total | −4 |
What Would Change the Regime
- 10Y real below 2.75% → component −1, total −3.
- 10Y up more than 5 bp over five sessions → component −1, total −5.
- Brent 20-session change below +15% → component −1.
Sources
U.S. Treasury; FRED; FactSet Earnings Insight (Oct 9).