1. Rates & cost of capital
2Y 4.69%, 10Y 5.00%, real 10Y 2.66%, as of 2026-10-23. Five-session change in the 10-year: -9 bp.
2. Fed
Target range 3.75–4.00%. Cumulative three-meeting expectation n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available).
3. Valuation & equity risk premium
S&P 500 forward P/E 18.7. ERP 0.35 pp. Nasdaq-100 forward P/E n/a (No verified NDX forward P/E source).
4. Credit
HY OAS 340 bp as of 2026-10-22. 20-session change 60 bp.
5. Commodities & dollar
Brent 115.22 as of 2026-10-20, 20-session change +0.29%. DXY n/a (DXY not taken: no verified primary close).
Week ahead (ET)
Coming sessions: 27 Oct 10:00 ET Conference Board consumer confidence (Oct), FOMC meeting begins; 28 Oct 14:00 ET FOMC rate decision; 28 Oct after the close Microsoft and Alphabet results; 29 Oct 08:30 ET Q3 GDP (advance), September personal income and PCE prices, initial jobless claims; 29 Oct after the close Amazon results; 30 Oct QQQ weekly options expiry.
Fundamental Scorecard
| Component | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ERP (EY − 10Y) | 0.35 | 0 |
| 10Y real | 2.66 | -1 |
| 10Y, 5-session change | -9 | 1 |
| NTM EPS revision, 4 weeks | n/a (not collected) | excluded |
| HY OAS, 20 sessions | 60 | -1 |
| Fed, 3 meetings | n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available) | excluded |
| Brent, 20 sessions | 0.29 | 0 |
| Total | -1 |
Sources
- rates: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve and Real Yield Curve, 23 Oct 2026
- credit: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 and BAMLC0A0CM, as of 22 Oct 2026 (latest available)
- valuation.spx_fpe: FactSet Earnings Insight, 23 Oct 2026
- commodities: EIA spot (RBRTE), as of 20 Oct 2026
- fed: Federal Reserve FOMC blackout calendar
- calendar: StockTitan earnings calendar (company date notices), Morningstar week ahead, 23 Oct 2026
- session context: CNBC, Reuters, S&P Global, University of Michigan, 23 Oct 2026