1. Rates & cost of capital
2Y 4.61% (prior 4.67%), 10Y 4.98% (prior 5.05%), real 10Y 2.63%, as of 29 October. Five-session change in the 10-year: +2 bp (prior −8 bp; component score 0, prior +1).
2. Fed
Target range 3.75–4.00%. Cumulative three-meeting expectation n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available).
3. Valuation & equity risk premium
S&P 500 forward P/E 18.7 (FactSet, 23 October). ERP 0.37 pp. Nasdaq-100 forward P/E n/a (no primary NDX forward P/E source).
4. Credit
HY OAS 314 bp as of 28 October (IG 86 bp; latest available). 20-session change +2 bp.
5. Commodities & dollar
Brent 123.10 as of 27 October (latest EIA spot print), 20-session change +8.02%. DXY n/a (no primary close collected).
Week ahead (ET)
Coming sessions: 30 Oct 09:45 ET Chicago PMI (Oct) and QQQ weekly options expiry; 2 Nov 10:00 ET ISM manufacturing (Oct); 2 Nov after the close Apple results.
Fundamental Scorecard
| Component | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ERP (EY − 10Y) | 0.37 | 0 |
| 10Y real | 2.63 | -1 |
| 10Y, 5-session change | 2 | 0 |
| NTM EPS revision, 4 weeks | n/a (not collected) | excluded |
| HY OAS, 20 sessions | 2 | 0 |
| Fed, 3 meetings | n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available) | excluded |
| Brent, 20 sessions | 8.02 | -1 |
| Total | -2 |
Sources
- rates: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve and Real Yield Curve, 29 Oct 2026
- credit: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 and BAMLC0A0CM, as of 28 Oct 2026
- commodities: EIA Brent spot via FRED DCOILBRENTEU, as of 27 Oct 2026
- valuation.spx_fpe: FactSet Earnings Insight, 23 Oct 2026
- fed: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, 28 Oct 2026
- macro: BEA GDP (advance Q3) and Personal Income and Outlays (September), 29 Oct 2026
- calendar: ISM release calendar, company investor-relations calendars
- Apple results date (2 Nov 2026, after the close): Apple Investor Relations, https://investor.apple.com/
- session context: AP, CNBC, Kiplinger, 29 Oct 2026