1. Rates & cost of capital
2Y 4.59% (prior 4.56%), 10Y 4.91% (prior 4.94%), real 10Y 2.62%, as of 2 November. Five-session change in the 10-year: −9 bp (prior −6 bp; component score +1, unchanged).
2. Fed
Target range 3.75–4.00%. Cumulative three-meeting expectation n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available).
3. Valuation & equity risk premium
S&P 500 forward P/E 18.7 (FactSet, 30 October). ERP 0.44 pp. Nasdaq-100 forward P/E n/a (no primary NDX forward P/E source).
4. Credit
HY OAS 314 bp as of 28 October (IG 86 bp; latest available). 20-session change +2 bp.
5. Commodities & dollar
Brent 123.10 as of 27 October (latest EIA spot print), 20-session change +8.02%. DXY n/a (no primary close collected).
Week ahead (ET)
Coming sessions: 3 Nov 10:00 ET JOLTS job openings (Sep) and U.S. midterm elections; 3 Nov after the close AMD results; 4 Nov 10:00 ET ISM services (Oct); 5 Nov 08:30 ET productivity and costs (Q3, preliminary) and weekly jobless claims; 6 Nov 08:30 ET employment report (Oct) and QQQ weekly options expiry.
Fundamental Scorecard
| Component | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ERP (EY − 10Y) | 0.44 | 0 |
| 10Y real | 2.62 | -1 |
| 10Y, 5-session change | -9 | 1 |
| NTM EPS revision, 4 weeks | n/a (not collected) | excluded |
| HY OAS, 20 sessions | 2 | 0 |
| Fed, 3 meetings | n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available) | excluded |
| Brent, 20 sessions | 8.02 | -1 |
| Total | -1 |
Sources
- rates: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve and Real Yield Curve, 2 Nov 2026
- credit: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2 and BAMLC0A0CM, as of 28 Oct 2026
- commodities: EIA Brent spot, as of 27 Oct 2026
- valuation.spx_fpe: FactSet Earnings Insight, 30 Oct 2026
- fed: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, 28 Oct 2026
- macro: ISM Manufacturing PMI, October 2026
- calendar: BLS November 2026 schedule, ISM release calendar, AMD investor-relations calendar, FEC
- session context: CNBC, AP, Schwab Network, 2 Nov 2026