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Risk Map · 2026-W39

Week of 21–25 September 2026

Scheduled market events of the week and their editorial risk level.

Overall riskHIGH
Key dayThursday, 24 September
Primary catalystU.S.–China Summit
Market regimePost-quarterly-expiration reset
MON21 SEPHigh
Main event / risk

Post-expiration gamma reset — Reassess QQQ positioning after quarterly expiration.

TUE22 SEPHigh
Main event / risk

Fed communication — Jefferson may reshape expectations for the next policy move.

WED23 SEPModerate
Main event / risk

VIX expiration / Fed commentary — Primarily a technical-volatility session.

THU24 SEPExtreme
Main event / risk

U.S.–China summit — The week’s largest two-sided catalyst for technology and volatility.

FRI25 SEPHigh
Main event / risk

Durable goods / inflation expectations / weekly expiration — Macro repricing and short-dated gamma may interact.

Weekly focus. Thursday is the principal event-risk window; Monday is the key structural reset.

Convexa editorial assessment · as of 23 Sep 2026

Risk classifications and scenarios are editorial assessments of potential market significance, not statistical probabilities or predictions. Events may produce materially different market reactions, including no significant reaction at all.

Political and geopolitical events are discussed solely in relation to their potential market impact; Convexa Daily does not take political positions.