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Home/Risk Map/Week of 28 September – 2 October 2026
Risk Map · 2026-W40

Week of 28 September – 2 October 2026

Scheduled market events of the week and their editorial risk level.

Overall riskHIGH
Key dayFriday · 2 October
Primary catalystSeptember U.S. Employment Situation
Market regimeWednesday’s macroeconomic data cluster
MON28 SEPModerate
Main event / risk

Governor Cook speaks on artificial intelligence and technology. Market attention begins shifting toward the heavy U.S. macroeconomic calendar later in the week.

TUE29 SEPHigh
Main event / risk

JOLTS labour-market data and remarks from Michael Barr are the main scheduled catalysts. U.S. restrictions on selected Canadian imports also take effect.

WED30 SEPHigh
Main event / risk

The week’s first major concentration of event risk: August PCE, the third estimate of Q2 GDP, ADP employment data, quarter-end flows and Micron earnings after the U.S. close.

THU01 OCTHigh
Main event / risk

Initial jobless claims and ISM Manufacturing are followed by Federal Reserve communication and Nike earnings after the close. The session also sits between Micron’s overnight reaction and Friday’s employment report.

FRI02 OCTHigh
Main event / risk

The September U.S. Employment Situation is the principal scheduled macroeconomic event of the week. Friday options expiration may add position-specific sensitivity around the release and into the close.

Weekly focus. Risk is concentrated around Wednesday’s macroeconomic data cluster and Friday’s U.S. employment report, with additional overnight event risk around Micron, quarter-end flows and Thursday’s data.

Convexa editorial assessment · as of 1 Oct 2026

Risk classifications and scenarios are editorial assessments of potential market significance, not statistical probabilities or predictions. Events may produce materially different market reactions, including no significant reaction at all.

Political and geopolitical events are discussed solely in relation to their potential market impact; Convexa Daily does not take political positions.