Technical Analysis
QQQ rose 0.49% to 751.27 on October 9, recovering part of Thursday's decline on less than half the prior session's volume; the session stayed inside October 8's range. The Nasdaq-100 gained 0.51% to 30,883.15, the S&P 500 0.59% to 7,811.54 and SPY 0.60% to 778.57, within $0.52 of its record close.
The trend is intact: QQQ is 1.86% above its 20-day (737.54) and 3.69% above its 50-day (724.52), both rising, so all six trend horizons on QQQ and SPY remain Bullish. RSI(14) is 60.9, with no momentum divergence. For the week, however, QQQ gained only 0.23% against 1.16% for SPY and 1.58% for equal-weight RSP.
Breadth improved on every horizon. The share of S&P 500 members above their 20-day rose to 54.4%, confirming the short-term SPY regime; the Nasdaq-100 share above the 50-day recovered to 48.51%, still just short of confirming the medium-term QQQ regime.
Main technical conclusion: the uptrend holds and the 748–750 pivot (session low; zero gamma — model) was defended, but the rebound lacked volume. A close above 762.86 would mark a new high; below 737.54 the short-term regime turns Neutral, with 724.52–725.00 (50-day; put wall — model) as the key support.
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Fundamental Analysis
Yields rose on October 9, led by the front end. The 2-year gained 5 bp to 4.80%, the 10-year 2 bp to 5.24% and the 10-year real yield 4 bp to 2.91%, while 2s10s flattened to 44 bp. According to media reports, the 10-year touched its highest intraday level since 2002. The University of Michigan survey showed sentiment at 46.3, below the 47.8 consensus, with one-year inflation expectations up to 4.7% and five-year to 3.5%.
The new FactSet edition puts the S&P 500 forward P/E at 19.1, a 5.24% earnings yield — level with the 10-year, leaving an equity risk premium of −0.004 pp. Forward EPS revisions accelerated to +1.94% over four weeks, and 16 of the first 19 reporting companies beat on earnings. High-yield spreads widened to 315 bp on October 8, 45 bp wider over 20 sessions.
Media reported Brent settling at $104.72, holding above $100; the scorecard still uses EIA spot data as of October 6. Market-implied Fed pricing remains n/a. Delta cut its full-year outlook as the earnings season approaches its bank-led start on October 13.
Main fundamental conclusion: the scorecard slipped to −4 from −3 on six of seven components, still a moderately unfavorable backdrop. The only change is valuation — the equity risk premium is formally negative by less than 1 bp. Earnings revisions (+2) remain the sole support, while real rates above 2.75%, wider credit and oil continue to weigh ahead of the September CPI on October 14.
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Volatility
Regime. Options cheapened across the curve on October 9 as QQQ recovered 0.49% to 751.27: VIX fell 0.57 to 14.84, VIX9D 0.95 to 11.26 and VXN 1.43 to 20.55. The Nasdaq premium over the broad market narrowed to 5.71 points, while CBOE SKEW rose to 154.34 — tail protection is still bid.
Short versus long volatility. VIX/VIX3M fell to 0.835, below the 0.85 boundary, so the regime moved from Normal to Calm; a VIX close above 15.10 would return it to Normal. VIX9D/VIX dropped to 0.759, with no event premium priced. October VX settled 0.505 lower at 17.119 and November 0.156 lower at 17.852, steepening the curve.
Nasdaq volatility. QQQ 30-day implied volatility fell 1.18 points to 18.01% while 10-day realized held at 12.30%, narrowing the premium over 20-day realized to 2.68 points. The put wing led the decline — the 10Δ put lost 1.59 points — and skew eased to +4.53 points. The front-end inversion is gone: the October 16 OPEX trades at 14.69% against 17.97% at about 30 days.
Principal warning. On our model, net GEX turned positive at +$0.84 billion per 1% move from −$1.39 billion, with zero gamma at 749.74 and QQQ 0.20% above it — gamma remains transitional. The straddle to the October 16 OPEX prices only ±1.62% for a CPI week; a close below 745.99 triggers the negative-gamma modifier. These are model estimates, not observed positions.
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