Technical Analysis
QQQ fell 1.34% to 747.58 on October 8 on almost double the prior session's volume, after a low of 743.23, and closed at the September 22 swing high of 748.35. The Nasdaq-100 lost 1.39% to 30,725.81, while the S&P 500 fell only 0.47% to 7,765.36 and SPY 0.42% to 773.93.
The trend is intact: QQQ is 1.61% above its 20-day (735.72) and 3.38% above its 50-day (723.17), and both averages are still rising, so all six trend horizons on QQQ and SPY remain Bullish. RSI(14) cooled to 58.8 from 68.0 together with price, with no momentum divergence.
This was a rotation, not a broad sell-off. Equal-weight RSP rose 0.60%, RSP/SPY gained 1.03% in a session, and the share of S&P 500 members above their 20-day rose to 48.80%. In the Nasdaq-100 the share above the 50-day fell to 47.00%, so the medium-term QQQ regime is no longer confirmed by breadth.
Main technical conclusion: the uptrend holds, but the breakout from the September range is now being tested. The 748.35–750.09 cluster (swing high; zero gamma — model) is the pivot; a close below 731.63 would negate the breakout, while 753.84–754.54 is the first resistance.
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Fundamental Analysis
Treasury yields fell across the curve on October 8, led by the long end. The 10-year declined 6 bp to 5.22% and the 30-year 7 bp to 5.60%, while the 2-year eased 2 bp to 4.75%; the 10-year real yield fell 5 bp to 2.87% and 2s10s flattened to 47 bp. The $22 billion 30-year auction cleared at 5.618%, in line with the when-issued level, with a 2.54 bid-to-cover.
Fed rhetoric stayed hawkish. Governor Waller said he anticipates additional hikes if the data come in as expected, not necessarily at consecutive meetings; St. Louis Fed President Musalem said rates ought to rise over the next six to nine months. Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000. Market-implied Fed pricing remains n/a.
With the S&P 500 forward P/E at 19.0, the 5.26% forward earnings yield is again above the 10-year: the equity risk premium turned positive at +0.04 pp. High-yield spreads widened 6 bp to 309 bp on October 7 and are 38 bp wider over 20 sessions. Media reported WTI settling 3.64% higher on Iran-related risks; the scorecard still uses EIA spot data as of October 6.
Main fundamental conclusion: the scorecard improved to −3 from −4 on six of seven components, still a moderately unfavorable backdrop. The only change is valuation — the equity risk premium is back above zero purely on lower yields, with a cushion of about 4 bp. Earnings revisions (+1.30% over four weeks) remain the principal support, while real rates above 2.75%, wider credit over the month and oil continue to weigh.
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Volatility
Regime. QQQ fell 1.34% to 747.58 on October 8 in a sell-off in AI and semiconductor names, and volatility rose across the board: VIX added 0.33 to 15.41, VIX9D 0.43 to 12.21 and VXN 0.98 to 21.98. The Nasdaq premium over the broad market widened to 6.57 points, and CBOE SKEW jumped to 149.19.
Short versus long volatility. VIX/VIX3M edged up to 0.852, still Normal and 0.04 VIX points from the Calm boundary; a VIX close above 17.18 would move the regime to Elevated. VIX9D/VIX rose only to 0.792, so no event premium is priced. October VX settled 0.290 higher at 17.624 and November 0.362 higher at 18.008.
Nasdaq volatility. QQQ 30-day implied volatility rose 0.65 points to 19.19%, while 10-day realized jumped to 12.27%, narrowing the gap to 6.92 points; the premium over 20-day realized widened to 3.72 points. The put wing led — the 10Δ put gained 1.18 points, the 10Δ call 0.09 — and skew rose to +4.91 points. The front inverted: the 1-day October 9 expiry trades at 17.83% versus 16.84% to the October 16 OPEX.
Principal warning. On our model, net GEX turned negative at −$1.39 billion per 1% move from +$2.17 billion, and zero gamma fell to 750.09 — QQQ closed 0.33% below it, so gamma is transitional. A close below 746.34 triggers the negative-gamma modifier; above 753.84 gamma turns positive again. These are model estimates, not observed positions.
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