1. Key Metrics
| Instrument | Close | Chg | Prior | Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | 751.27 | +0.49% | 747.58 | +0.23% |
| Nasdaq-100 | 30,883.15 | +0.51% | 30,725.81 | +0.24% |
| SPY | 778.57 | +0.60% | 773.93 | +1.16% |
| S&P 500 | 7,811.54 | +0.59% | 7,765.36 | — |
| RSP | 213.04 | +0.55% | 211.87 | +1.58% |
| QQEW | 163.87 | +0.61% | 162.87 | — |
QQQ volume was 21.16mn shares versus 49.69mn the prior session; SPY 22.62mn versus 40.43mn. QQQ and SPY closes match across Nasdaq.com and Cboe to the cent. Weekly change is the October 9 close versus the October 2 close. VIX 14.84 and VXN 20.55 are covered in the volatility report.
2. Trend
| QQQ | Value | Price vs. | In ATR | 5-session slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | 737.54 | +1.86% | 1.50 | rising, +1.34% |
| SMA 50 | 724.52 | +3.69% | 2.92 | rising, +1.07% |
| SMA 200 | 672.18 | +11.77% | 8.64 | — |
| EMA 21 | 739.84 | +1.54% | 1.25 | — |
| SPY | Value | Price vs. | In ATR | 5-session slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | 767.98 | +1.38% | 1.60 | rising, +0.41% |
| SMA 50 | 767.57 | +1.43% | 1.66 | rising, +0.51% |
| SMA 200 | 722.94 | +7.69% | 8.41 | — |
| EMA 21 | 769.83 | +1.14% | 1.32 | — |
Swing structure: QQQ's last significant high is 762.86 (Oct 6, also the all-time high) and low 731.63 (Sep 28); SPY 781.62 (Oct 6) and 758.79 (Oct 1). Record closes: QQQ 759.66 (Oct 6), SPY 779.09. QQQ's weekly range was 743.23–762.86. The week printed a new swing high and pulled back to 743.23 — above the prior September 22 high (748.35) — so the higher-high, higher-low structure holds. SPY closed within $0.52 of its record close; the broad market is closer to its highs than the Nasdaq (QQQ is 1.1% below its record close).
3. Momentum & price volatility
RSI(14): QQQ 60.90 (prior 58.83), SPY 59.89 (prior 56.09). ATR(14): QQQ $9.16 (1.22%; prior $9.46), SPY $6.61 (0.85%; prior $6.70). Realized volatility: QQQ 12.30% / 15.33% (10/20 sessions), SPY 8.32% / 9.95%. Momentum is neutral-to-positive, neither overbought nor diverging from price. The narrow session (a $4.50 range against a $9.16 ATR) was a pause after Thursday's swing.
4. Levels
Resistance: 762.86 (all-time high = Oct 6 swing high), 760 (call wall, model), 757.18 (Oct 8 high), a 753.49–754.54 cluster (positive-gamma threshold, model; high of the Sep 28 – Oct 2 week) and 752.87 (session high). Pivot: the 748.37–749.74 cluster (session low; zero gamma, model). Support: 745.99 (negative-gamma threshold, model), 743.23 (Oct 8 low = weekly low), 739.84 / 737.54 (EMA 21 / SMA 20), 731.63 (Sep 28 swing low) and a new 724.52–725.00 cluster (SMA 50; put wall, model) — the main model and trend supports now coincide. Gamma levels are estimates from the full QQQ chain under a dealers-long-calls / short-puts assumption, not observed positions.
5. Breadth
| Share of members above SMA | Oct 9 | Oct 8 |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 — SMA 50 | 48.51% | 47.0% |
| Nasdaq-100 — SMA 200 | 61.62% | 60.2% |
| S&P 500 — SMA 20 | 54.4% | 48.8% |
| S&P 500 — SMA 50 | 35.0% | 32.0% |
| S&P 500 — SMA 200 | 47.59% | 46.59% |
Nasdaq-100 membership per api.nasdaq.com is 101 securities (both GOOG and GOOGL). NYSE/Nasdaq advance/decline, up-volume share and the McClellan Oscillator are n/a (Barchart/WSJ block cloud requests). Breadth improved on every horizon. The share of S&P 500 members above their 20-day crossed 50%, so the short-term SPY regime is now confirmed by breadth; the Nasdaq-100 is about one and a half points short of confirming the medium-term regime. Medium-term S&P 500 breadth remains weak, with only 35.0% of members above their 50-day while the index sits near a record.
6. Concentration & relative strength
| Ratio | Value | 1 session | 5 sessions | 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSP / SPY | 0.27363 | −0.05% | +0.41% | −2.67% |
| QQEW / QQQ | 0.21812 | +0.12% | −0.10% | −0.87% |
| QQQ / SPY | 0.96494 | −0.11% | −0.92% | +3.16% |
Nasdaq-100 top 10: AMZN +3.29%, MSFT +2.38%, TSLA +2.05%, SPCX +1.25%, GOOGL +0.97%, GOOG +0.87%, AVGO +0.39%; META −0.31%, NVDA −0.52%, AAPL −1.11%. AMZN and MSFT led the rebound while NVDA and AAPL stayed lower — the AI complex recovered only partly. QQQ lagged SPY by 0.92% over five sessions but still leads by 3.16% over twenty: Nasdaq leadership has weakened, not broken. Cross-market: the 10-year yield rose 2 bp to 5.24% (Investrade reported an intraday 5.3645%, the highest since April 2002), keeping pressure on long duration; DXY is n/a; Brent held above $100 per media reports (details in the fundamental report).
7. Divergences
- Price vs. breadth (medium term): SPY is within $0.52 of its record close, yet only 35.0% of S&P 500 members are above their 50-day.
- Nasdaq vs. broad market (week): QQQ +0.23% versus SPY +1.16% and RSP +1.58%.
- Price vs. volume: Friday's gain came on less than half of Thursday's selling volume — a rebound without volume confirmation.
8. Regime
| Horizon | QQQ | SPY | Breadth confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short term (SMA 20) | Bullish | Bullish | QQQ n/a; SPY confirmed (54.4%) |
| Medium term (SMA 50) | Bullish | Bullish | QQQ not confirmed (48.51%); SPY not confirmed (35.0%) |
| Long term (SMA 200) | Bullish | Bullish | QQQ confirmed (61.62%); SPY not confirmed (47.59%) |
Price is above the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages and both shorter averages are rising (flat threshold ±0.1% over five sessions). Day-over-day change: the short-term SPY regime gained breadth confirmation.
What Would Change the Regime
- If QQQ closes below its 20-day (737.54), then the short-term regime turns Neutral.
- If QQQ closes above 762.86, then it sets a new all-time high and breaks out of the weekly range.
- If the share of Nasdaq-100 members above their 50-day rises above 50%, then the medium-term QQQ regime is confirmed by breadth.
- If SPY closes below its 50-day (767.57), then the medium-term SPY regime turns Neutral.
Sources
- Nasdaq.com historical API — daily closes for ETFs, indices and members; SMA, EMA, RSI, ATR, realized volatility, breadth and weekly changes computed in-house
- Cboe — QQQ and SPY close cross-check, S&P 500; gamma levels from the volatility report
- Wikipedia — S&P 500 membership; Nasdaq-100 membership — api.nasdaq.com
- U.S. Treasury — 10-year yield; Investrade — intraday 10-year high (context)
Model-based estimates are labeled as such. This report describes market conditions and is not investment advice.