1. Rates & cost of capital
2Y 4.81%, 10Y 5.13%, real 10Y 2.76%, as of 2026-10-21. Five-session change in the 10-year: -6 bp.
2. Fed
Target range 3.75–4.00%. Cumulative three-meeting expectation n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available).
3. Valuation & equity risk premium
S&P 500 forward P/E 19.0. ERP 0.13 pp. Nasdaq-100 forward P/E n/a (No verified NDX forward P/E source).
4. Credit
HY OAS 329 bp as of 2026-10-19. 20-session change 63 bp.
5. Commodities & dollar
Brent 115.22 as of 2026-10-20, 20-session change +0.29%. DXY n/a (DXY not taken: no verified primary close).
Week ahead (ET)
Coming sessions: 2026-10-22 08:30 Initial jobless claims; 2026-10-22 10:00 Conference Board Leading Economic Index (Sep); 2026-10-23 09:45 S&P Global flash PMIs (Oct); 2026-10-23 10:00 University of Michigan consumer sentiment, final (Oct); 2026-10-23 QQQ weekly options expiry.
Fundamental Scorecard
| Component | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ERP (EY − 10Y) | 0.13 | 0 |
| 10Y real | 2.76 | -2 |
| 10Y, 5-session change | -6 | 1 |
| NTM EPS revision, 4 weeks | n/a (not collected) | excluded |
| HY OAS, 20 sessions | 63 | -1 |
| Fed, 3 meetings | n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available) | excluded |
| Brent, 20 sessions | 0.29 | 0 |
| Total | -2 |
Sources
- rates: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve and Real Yield Curve, 21 Oct 2026
- credit: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2, as of 19 Oct 2026; IG OAS via ICE BofA (Cappelleri Closing Look, 20 Oct; latest available)
- valuation.spx_fpe: FactSet Earnings Insight, 16 Oct 2026
- commodities: EIA spot (RBRTE), as of 20 Oct 2026
- fed: Federal Reserve FOMC blackout calendar