1. Rates & cost of capital
2Y 4.61% (prior 4.59%), 10Y 4.95% (prior 4.91%), real 10Y 2.65% (prior 2.62%), as of 3 November. Five-session change in the 10-year: −4 bp (prior −9 bp; component score 0, from +1). That moved the scorecard to Moderately Unfavorable (−2) from Neutral (−1). A five-session change of −5 bp or lower, a non-positive 20-session HY change or a 20-session Brent change of 5% or less would return it to Neutral.
2. Fed
Target range 3.75–4.00%. Cumulative three-meeting expectation n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available).
3. Valuation & equity risk premium
S&P 500 forward P/E 18.7 (FactSet, 30 October). ERP 0.40 pp (prior 0.44 pp). Nasdaq-100 forward P/E n/a (no primary NDX forward P/E source).
4. Credit
HY OAS 314 bp as of 28 October (IG 86 bp; latest available). 20-session change +2 bp.
5. Commodities & dollar
Brent 123.10 as of 27 October (latest EIA spot print), 20-session change +8.02%. DXY n/a (no primary close collected).
Week ahead (ET)
Coming sessions: 4 Nov 10:00 ET ISM services (Oct), the first session after the midterm elections and AMD results; 5 Nov 08:30 ET productivity and costs (Q3, preliminary) and weekly jobless claims; 6 Nov 08:30 ET employment report (Oct) and QQQ weekly options expiry.
Fundamental Scorecard
| Component | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ERP (EY − 10Y) | 0.4 | 0 |
| 10Y real | 2.65 | -1 |
| 10Y, 5-session change | -4 | 0 |
| NTM EPS revision, 4 weeks | n/a (not collected) | excluded |
| HY OAS, 20 sessions | 2 | 0 |
| Fed, 3 meetings | n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available) | excluded |
| Brent, 20 sessions | 8.02 | -1 |
| Total | -2 |