1. Rates & cost of capital
2Y 4.58% (prior 4.61%), 10Y 4.90% (prior 4.95%), real 10Y 2.64% (prior 2.65%), as of 4 November. Five-session change in the 10-year: −15 bp (prior −4 bp; component score +1, from 0). With the Brent component, that moved the scorecard to Moderately Favorable (+2) from Moderately Unfavorable (−2). A five-session change above −5 bp or a 20-session Brent change of −10% or higher would return it to Neutral.
2. Fed
Target range 3.75–4.00%. Cumulative three-meeting expectation n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available).
3. Valuation & equity risk premium
S&P 500 forward P/E 18.7 (FactSet, 30 October). ERP 0.45 pp (prior 0.40 pp). Nasdaq-100 forward P/E n/a (no primary NDX forward P/E source).
4. Credit
HY OAS 314 bp as of 28 October (IG 86 bp; latest available). 20-session change +2 bp.
5. Commodities & dollar
Brent 107.03 as of 3 November (latest EIA spot print; prior print 123.10 on 27 October), 20-session change −14.68% (component score +2, from −1). DXY n/a (no primary close collected).
Week ahead (ET)
Coming sessions: 5 Nov 08:30 ET productivity and costs (Q3, preliminary) and weekly jobless claims; 6 Nov 08:30 ET employment report (Oct) and QQQ weekly options expiry.
Fundamental Scorecard
| Component | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ERP (EY − 10Y) | 0.45 | 0 |
| 10Y real | 2.64 | -1 |
| 10Y, 5-session change | -15 | 1 |
| NTM EPS revision, 4 weeks | n/a (not collected) | excluded |
| HY OAS, 20 sessions | 2 | 0 |
| Fed, 3 meetings | n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available) | excluded |
| Brent, 20 sessions | -14.68 | 2 |
| Total | 2 |