1. Rates & cost of capital
2Y 4.51% (prior 4.46%), 10Y 4.86% (prior 4.84%), real 10Y 2.63% (prior 2.60%), as of 6 November. Five-session change in the 10-year: −8 bp (component score +1). With the Brent component, the scorecard stayed Moderately Favorable (+2).
2. Fed
Target range 3.75–4.00%. Cumulative three-meeting expectation n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available).
3. Valuation & equity risk premium
S&P 500 forward P/E 18.7 (FactSet, 30 October). ERP 0.49 pp. Nasdaq-100 forward P/E n/a (no primary NDX forward P/E source).
4. Credit
HY OAS 314 bp as of 28 October (IG 86 bp; latest available). 20-session change +2 bp.
5. Commodities & dollar
Brent 107.03 as of 3 November (latest EIA spot print), 20-session change −14.68% (component score +2). DXY n/a (no primary close collected).
Week ahead (ET)
Coming sessions: 9 Nov Fed speakers (Goolsbee, Barkin, Bowman); 10 Nov 08:30 ET CPI and real earnings (Oct); 11 Nov Veterans Day (U.S. bond market closed per SIFMA; stock and options exchanges open); 13 Nov 08:30 ET PPI (Oct) and QQQ weekly options expiry.
Fundamental Scorecard
| Component | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ERP (EY − 10Y) | 0.49 | 0 |
| 10Y real | 2.63 | -1 |
| 10Y, 5-session change | -8 | 1 |
| NTM EPS revision, 4 weeks | n/a (not collected) | excluded |
| HY OAS, 20 sessions | 2 | 0 |
| Fed, 3 meetings | n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available) | excluded |
| Brent, 20 sessions | -14.68 | 2 |
| Total | 2 |