1. Rates & cost of capital
2Y 4.56% (prior 4.51%), 10Y 4.88% (prior 4.86%), real 10Y 2.66% (prior 2.63%), as of 9 November. Five-session change in the 10-year: −3 bp (component score 0, from +1). With ERP now scoring +1, the scorecard stayed Moderately Favorable (+2).
2. Fed
Target range 3.75–4.00%. Cumulative three-meeting expectation n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not collected). Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said the AI data-center build-out was starting to look like demand overheating; Richmond Fed President Barkin said the direction of policy was relatively straightforward but that it was wise to move with care.
3. Valuation & equity risk premium
S&P 500 forward P/E 17.7 (FactSet, 5 November; prior 18.7 as of 30 October). ERP 0.77 pp (component score +1). Nasdaq-100 forward P/E n/a (no primary NDX forward P/E source).
4. Credit
HY OAS 314 bp as of 28 October (IG 86 bp; latest available). 20-session change +2 bp.
5. Commodities & dollar
Brent 107.03 as of 3 November (latest EIA spot print), 20-session change −14.68% (component score +2). Brent futures settled 5.85% lower on 9 November. DXY n/a (no primary close collected).
Week ahead (ET)
Coming sessions: 11 Nov Veterans Day (U.S. bond market closed per SIFMA; stock and options exchanges open); 12 Nov 08:30 ET weekly jobless claims; 13 Nov 08:30 ET PPI (Oct) and QQQ weekly options expiry.
Fundamental Scorecard
| Component | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ERP (EY − 10Y) | 0.77 | 1 |
| 10Y real | 2.66 | -1 |
| 10Y, 5-session change | -3 | 0 |
| NTM EPS revision, 4 weeks | n/a (not collected) | excluded |
| HY OAS, 20 sessions | 2 | 0 |
| Fed, 3 meetings | n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available) | excluded |
| Brent, 20 sessions | -14.68 | 2 |
| Total | 2 |