Technical Report for September 25, 2026

1. Main Technical Diagnosis

September 25 was a constructive index session with only partial internal confirmation.

The S&P 500 rose 0.51% to 7,743.41, the Nasdaq-100 gained 0.42% to 30,608.13, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.48% to 27,068.72, and the Russell 2000 increased only 0.07% to 2,837.55.

The S&P 500 traded between 7,693.08 and 7,752.07, finishing near the upper end of the daily range. Seven of the 11 S&P 500 sectors ended higher, and advancing constituents outnumbered decliners by roughly 1.9 to 1.

The session therefore repaired part of the prior breadth damage at the daily level. However, the longer cross-sectional structure remained weak: only a minority of U.S. stocks are above their 50-day and 200-day trend measures, and new lows still materially exceed new highs.

Technical diagnosis: the capitalization-weighted index trend is constructive and improved on September 25, but the market remains dependent on relatively narrow leadership. The primary trend is intact; breadth is recovering from weak levels rather than confirming a broad expansion.

2. Core Technical Dashboard

3. S&P 500 Moving Averages

Calculated from the same S&P 500 daily close series used for the report:

Sequence:

price > 10-day ≈ 20-day > 50-day > 100-day > 200-day

The index is above every principal moving-average reference.

The 10- and 20-day averages have converged near 7,672–7,673, creating a compact near-term support area. The 50-day average remains less than 1.5% below the close.

The 14-day RSI is approximately 56.7, a neutral-to-positive reading. Stochastic RSI is approximately 85%, showing strong short-term momentum without changing the broader breadth diagnosis.

4. Market Breadth

S&P 500 advance / decline

Inside the S&P 500, advancing stocks outnumbered decliners by approximately 1.9 to 1.

This marks a clear improvement from the September 24 session, when decliners held the same approximate advantage.

Broad U.S. common-stock universe

As of September 25:

• above 50-day moving average: approximately 28%
• above 200-day moving average: approximately 41%
• net advances: approximately +352
• ratio-adjusted McClellan Oscillator: approximately −22.6

The current 10-day and 100-day breadth percentages were not independently refreshed in the approved source set at preparation time. The September 24 readings are therefore not carried forward as September 25 data.

Interpretation:

Daily breadth momentum improved, but structural participation remains weak. Fewer than three in ten eligible U.S. stocks are above their 50-day averages, while fewer than half are above their 200-day averages.

5. New 52-Week Highs and Lows

S&P 500:

• New highs: 3
• New lows: 31
• Net spread: −28

Nasdaq:

• New highs: 54
• New lows: 175
• Net spread: −121

Broad U.S. common-stock universe:

• New highs: 46
• New lows: 308

The high-low structure remained negative despite positive headline index returns.

That divergence is important: price improved, but the number of stocks making new lows still materially exceeded the number making new highs.

6. Momentum

S&P 500 14-day RSI: approximately 56.7.

S&P 500 14-day Stochastic RSI: approximately 85%.

The index has moved from neutral momentum toward the stronger end of its recent range.

The momentum signal is constructive at the index level, but it should be interpreted alongside weak 50-day participation and a still-negative McClellan Oscillator.

7. Volume

Aggregate U.S. exchange volume was approximately 14.9 billion shares, compared with a 20-session average of approximately 16.8 billion.

The rebound therefore occurred on below-average turnover.

That reduces the confirmatory value of the index advance relative to a similarly sized move on materially stronger volume.

8. Volatility

Volatility declined as the major equity indexes advanced.

The decline was strongest in broad-market short-dated volatility, while Nasdaq volatility remained above 20.

The volatility move is consistent with a calmer risk session, but not with a fully normalized Nasdaq volatility regime.

9. Key Technical Levels

Nearest S&P 500 support:

• 7,693 — September 25 intraday low
• 7,672–7,673 — converged 10-day and 20-day moving averages
• 7,636 — 50-day moving average
• 7,548 — 100-day moving average
• 7,205 — 200-day moving average

Nearest resistance:

• 7,752 — September 25 intraday high
• 7,799–7,817 — recent record zone

The first structural test is the 7,670–7,695 area. A sustained move through 7,752 would leave the recent record zone as the principal overhead reference.

10. Principal Divergences

Index strength versus market breadth: The S&P 500 remains in a constructive primary trend while only about 28% of broad U.S. stocks are above their 50-day moving averages.

Large caps versus smaller companies: The S&P 500 rose 0.51% while the Russell 2000 gained only 0.07%.

Positive daily advance versus negative high-low structure: Advancers led during the session, yet new lows continued to exceed new highs materially.

Equities versus credit: Equity breadth remains weak while the HYG/LQD credit ratio remains in a tight, risk-on regime.

11. Technical Regime

Short term: neutral to bullish. The S&P 500 is above its 10- and 20-day averages, momentum improved, and volatility declined.

Medium term: neutral. The index is above the 50- and 100-day averages, but broad 50-day participation remains near 28%.

Long term: bullish but narrow. The S&P 500 is approximately 7.5% above its 200-day average, while only about 41% of broad U.S. stocks are above their own 200-day averages.