1. Index Closes
| Index | Close | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| QQQ | 736.53 | -1.07% |
| NDX | 30,276.81 | -1.08% |
| SPY | 765.61 | -0.74% |
| SPX | 7,683.69 | -0.77% |
| RSP | 209.74 | -0.65% |
| QQEW | 161.77 | -1.25% |
2. Trend
QQQ: SMA20 721.88 (+2.03%, +1.50 ATR), SMA50 713.48 (+3.23%), SMA200 666.14 (+10.57%), EMA21 725.76. Five-session slope: SMA20 +1.01%, SMA50 +0.45% — both rising. Swing high 748.35 (Sep 22), swing low 700.00 (Sep 16); all-time intraday high 748.65 (Jun 3), record close 747.46 (Sep 22). SPY: SMA20 765.16 (+0.06%), SMA50 762.01 (+0.47%), SMA200 718.86 (+6.50%); SMA20 slope +0.06% (flat), SMA50 +0.25%.
3. Momentum & price volatility
RSI(14): QQQ 58.5, SPY 50.5. ATR(14): QQQ $9.78 (1.33%), SPY $6.71 (0.88%). Realized vol QQQ 10d/20d 18.75% / 16.02% — accelerating.
4. Levels (QQQ)
Resistance: zero gamma 739.19 (model), prior-session high 745.92, swing high / prior-week high 748.35 clustered with the all-time high 748.65, call wall 760 (model). Support: session low 731.63, put wall 730 (model), prior-week low 727.81, EMA21 725.76, SMA20 721.88, SMA50 713.48, swing low 700.00.
5. Breadth
Nasdaq-100 above 50d / 200d: 46.53% / 56.43% (prior 46.53% / 59.40%). S&P 500 above 20d / 50d / 200d: 26.97% / 27.23% / 44.14%. Advancers/decliners: NYSE 508/1332, Nasdaq 1023/2006. New 52-week highs/lows: NYSE 10/142, Nasdaq 29/211. Up-volume share and the McClellan Oscillator are n/a (no verified closing source).
6. Concentration & relative strength
Over 20 sessions QQEW/QQQ is -4.94%, RSP/SPY -4.50% and QQQ/SPY +3.31%. On the day QQQ/SPY gave back 0.33%.
7. Divergences
Price vs. breadth (QQQ 3.23% above its 50-day with only 46.53% of members above theirs); equal-weight vs. cap-weight (see above); price vs. volume (the decline came on 41.78mn shares vs 29.87mn on Sep 25). No price/momentum divergence.
| Horizon | QQQ | SPY | Breadth confirmation (QQQ / SPY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short term | Bullish | Neutral | n/a / not confirmed (26.97%) |
| Medium term | Bullish | Bullish | not confirmed (46.53%) / not confirmed (27.23%) |
| Long term | Bullish | Bullish | confirmed (56.43%) / not confirmed (44.14%) |
A moving-average slope is treated as flat when its 5-session change is within ±0.1%.
8. What Would Change the Regime
- If QQQ closes below its 20-day (721.88), then the QQQ short-term regime turns neutral.
- If SPY closes below its 20-day (765.16) with the average rolling over, then the SPY short-term regime turns bearish.
- If the share of Nasdaq-100 members above their 50-day moves back above 50% (now 46.53%), then the medium-term QQQ uptrend gains breadth confirmation.
- If QQQ closes above 748.65, then it sets a new all-time high and the 748.35–748.65 cluster turns into support.
Sources
- Cboe — delayed quotes and historical prices (QQQ, SPY, RSP, QQEW, NDX, SPX)
- Yahoo Finance — two-year daily history, cross-check of closes
- Barchart — breadth (share above moving averages, advance/decline, new highs/lows)
Model-based estimates (gamma exposure, dealer positioning) are labeled as such and are not observed positions. This report describes market conditions and is not investment advice.