Technical Analysis
QQQ ended a three-session record streak on October 7, slipping 0.25% to 757.73 after an intraday low of 751.75 that filled the October 6 gap; the close held above the prior-week high of 754.54. The Nasdaq-100 fell 0.21% to 31,160.08, the S&P 500 0.22% to 7,801.77 and SPY 0.24% to 777.22.
The trend is intact: QQQ is 3.26% above its 20-day (733.78) and 5.03% above its 50-day (721.45), and both averages are still rising. RSI(14) eased to 68.0 together with price, with no momentum divergence. The SPY 20-day turned up, so all six trend horizons on QQQ and SPY are now Bullish.
The decline was broader than the indices. Equal-weight RSP fell 0.81% and QQEW 0.69%, the Russell 2000 lost 1.31%, and the share of S&P 500 members above their 20-day dropped to 37.60%. In the Nasdaq-100 the share above the 50-day rose to 51.00%, confirming the medium-term regime.
Main technical conclusion: the uptrend holds on all horizons, but the gap is filled and the record streak is broken on narrowing participation. The 753.30–754.54 zone (zero gamma — model, prior-week high) is first support; the 748.35–749.53 cluster is the level that keeps the breakout valid.
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Fundamental Analysis
Long-end Treasury yields rose again on October 7 while the front end eased. The 10-year added 1 bp to 5.28% and the 30-year 3 bp to 5.67%, while the 2-year fell 2 bp to 4.77%; the 10-year real yield rose 1 bp to 2.92% and 2s10s steepened to 51 bp.
The $39 billion 10-year auction was strong, clearing at 5.300% — 1.7 bp through the when-issued level — with a 2.77 bid-to-cover. Minutes of the September meeting showed a unanimous 25 bp hike with divided reasoning between energy-driven and demand-driven inflation; the market-implied Fed path remains n/a.
With the S&P 500 forward P/E at 19.0, the 5.26% forward earnings yield is 0.02 pp below the 10-year. High-yield spreads tightened 9 bp to 303 bp on October 6 but are 36 bp wider over 20 sessions. Updated EIA spot data put Brent's 20-session change at +18.21%.
Main fundamental conclusion: the scorecard is unchanged at −4 on six of seven components, a moderately unfavorable backdrop. Earnings revisions (+1.30% over four weeks) remain the principal offset, while real rates above 2.75%, a slightly negative equity risk premium, wider credit over the month and oil continue to weigh.
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Volatility
Regime. QQQ ended its three-session record streak on October 7, slipping 0.25% to 757.73, but index volatility barely reacted: VIX rose 0.07 to 15.08, VIX9D fell 0.25 to 11.78 and VXN 0.15 to 21.00. The Nasdaq premium over the broad market narrowed to 5.92 points.
Short versus long volatility. VIX/VIX3M held at 0.851, still Normal and 0.02 VIX points from the Calm boundary; a VIX close below 15.06 would change the regime. VIX9D/VIX fell to 0.781, so no event premium is priced for Thursday's 30-year auction. October VX settled 0.253 higher at 17.334 while November was flat, flattening the M1–M2 spread to 0.31.
Nasdaq volatility. QQQ 30-day implied volatility eased 0.09 points to 18.54%, while 10-day realized fell to 9.38%, widening the gap to 9.16 points; the premium over 20-day realized is 3.43 points. The call wing led the decline — the 10Δ call lost 0.61 points, the 10Δ put only 0.09 — and skew steepened to +4.17 points. The October 9 weekly straddle implies ±0.88%.
Principal warning. On our model, net GEX fell to +$2.17 billion per 1% move from +$5.75 billion, and zero gamma rose to 753.30, only 0.59% below the close — gamma is still positive, but a 1% decline now turns modeled GEX negative. A close below 757.07 makes gamma transitional, below 749.53 negative; the put wall moved to 700 from 725. These are model estimates, not observed positions.
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