Skip to content
Home/Technical Analysis/October 7, 2026
CONVEXA · DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

Technical Report for October 7, 2026

For the trading session ended October 7, 2026

1. Key Metrics

InstrumentCloseChgPriorHigh / Low
QQQ757.73−0.25%759.66758.30 / 751.75
NDX31,160.08−0.21%31,224.6931,170.12 / 30,904.46
SPY777.22−0.24%779.09779.10 / 773.61
SPX7,801.77−0.22%7,818.937,807.02 / 7,763.34
RSP210.60−0.81%212.33211.68 / 210.08
QQEW164.59−0.69%165.74164.63 / 163.57

QQQ volume was 25.47mn shares (prior 26.51mn, −3.9%); SPY 30.99mn (prior 36.05mn, −14.0%). NDX top 10: AMZN +1.42%, AAPL +0.91%, GOOGL +0.81%, GOOG +0.81%, AVGO +0.19%, MSFT +0.09%, NVDA −0.74%, TSLA −0.75%, META −2.38%, SPCX −2.51%. VIX 15.08 (+0.07) and VXN 21.00 (−0.15) — see the volatility report.

2. Trend

QQQ: SMA 20 733.78 (price +3.26%, 2.64 ATR; rising, +1.28% over 5 sessions), SMA 50 721.45 (+5.03%, 4.00 ATR; rising, +0.91%), SMA 200 670.87 (+12.95%, 9.58 ATR), EMA 21 737.81 (+2.70%). SPY: SMA 20 766.46 (+1.40%; rising, +0.18%), SMA 50 765.95 (+1.47%; rising, +0.42%), SMA 200 722.00 (+7.65%), EMA 21 768.46. Swings (±3 bars): QQQ high 748.35 (Sep 22), low 731.63 (Sep 28); SPY high 775.14 (Sep 22), low 758.79 (Oct 1). Read: one down day did not change the trend — the QQQ 20-day slope even steepened to +1.28% as early-September closes rolled out of the window. The SPY 20-day crossed the +0.1% threshold, so the S&P 500 short-term regime moved from Neutral to Bullish.

3. Momentum & price volatility

RSI(14): QQQ 68.01 (prior 69.93), SPY 59.82 (prior 62.00). ATR(14): QQQ $9.07 (1.20%; prior 9.16), SPY $6.69 (0.86%; prior 6.79). Realized volatility: QQQ 9.38% (10d) and 15.11% (20d); SPY 7.80% and 10.30%. RSI turned down from just below overbought together with price — no momentum divergence. ATR and RV10 keep falling: the advance and Wednesday's pullback were both orderly.

4. Levels

Resistance: session high 758.30 (+0.08%), the 760 call wall (model, +0.30%) and the all-time high 762.86 (+0.68%). Support: prior-week high 754.54 (−0.42%); zero gamma 753.30 (model, −0.58%); session low 751.75 (−0.79%); cluster 749.53 / 749.08 / 748.35 (negative-gamma threshold — model, Oct 5 low, Sep 22 swing high; −1.08% to −1.24%); EMA 21 737.81 (−2.63%); cluster 733.78 / 731.63 (SMA 20, Sep 28 swing low; −3.2% to −3.4%); put wall 700 (model, −7.62%). The October 6 gap is closed. The 748.35–749.53 cluster is now where the breakout and the model's negative-gamma threshold coincide.

5. Breadth

Nasdaq-100: above 50-day 51.00% (prior 48.51%), above 200-day 60.20% (prior 62.63%). S&P 500: above 20-day 37.60% (prior 43.40%), above 50-day 28.60% (prior 29.60%), above 200-day 44.98% (prior 46.59%). Own calculation from component daily closes (NDX 100 members per Nasdaq.com, prior 101; S&P 500 503). NYSE/Nasdaq advance-decline, up-volume share and McClellan: n/a (Barchart/WSJ block cloud requests); per TheStreet, more than two-thirds of U.S. issues declined. The Russell 2000 fell 1.31%. In the S&P 500 the two-day broadening reversed: all three shares fell and remain below 50%. In the Nasdaq-100 the 50-day share rose above 50% — partly because the member count changed — and now confirms the medium-term regime.

6. Concentration & relative strength

RSP/SPY: −0.58% on the day, −0.66% over 5 sessions, −3.75% over 20. QQEW/QQQ: −0.44%, −1.25%, −1.70%. QQQ/SPY: −0.01%, +0.51%, +3.77%. The decline was carried by the average stock: AMZN, AAPL and Alphabet rose and cushioned the cap-weighted indices, while META and SPCX fell more than 2%. Concentration increased again in both indices.

7. Divergences

  • Equal-weight vs cap-weight: RSP −0.81% vs SPY −0.24%; QQEW −0.69% vs QQQ −0.25%; QQEW/QQQ −1.25% over five sessions.
  • Price vs breadth (S&P 500): a record close one session earlier with fewer than 30% of members above their 50-day.
  • Price vs momentum and volume: confirmation — RSI eased with price; the decline came on lower QQQ volume (−3.9%).

8. Regime

HorizonQQQSPYBreadth confirmation
Short termBullishBullishQQQ n/a; SPY not confirmed (37.60%)
Medium termBullishBullishQQQ confirmed (51.00%); SPY not confirmed (28.60%)
Long termBullishBullishQQQ confirmed (60.20%); SPY not confirmed (44.98%)

What Would Change the Regime

  • If QQQ closes below 748.35–749.53, then the September 22 breakout is in question and modeled gamma turns negative.
  • If the share of Nasdaq-100 members above their 50-day falls back below 50%, then the QQQ medium-term regime loses breadth confirmation.
  • If the SPY 20-day slope falls back within ±0.1% over five sessions, then the SPY short-term regime returns to Neutral.
  • If QQQ closes below its 20-day (733.78), then the short-term regime turns Neutral.

Sources

  1. Nasdaq.com historical API — daily closes for QQQ, SPY, RSP, QQEW, NDX and index members; averages, RSI, ATR, RV and breadth are own calculations
  2. Cboe — QQQ and SPY close cross-check (exact match), SPX history
  3. Wikipedia — S&P 500 membership; Nasdaq.com — Nasdaq-100 membership
  4. TheStreet, Investrade — Oct 7 session wrap (Russell 2000, market internals)
  5. Gamma levels — Convexa Daily volatility report (model)

Model-based levels (zero gamma, call and put walls) are labeled as such. This report describes market conditions and is not investment advice.