1. Rates & cost of capital
2Y 4.74%, 10Y 5.09%, real 10Y 2.74%, as of 2026-10-16. Five-session change in the 10-year: -13 bp.
2. Fed
Target range 3.75–4.00%. Cumulative three-meeting expectation n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available for this session).
3. Valuation & equity risk premium
S&P 500 forward P/E 19.0. ERP 0.17 pp. Nasdaq-100 forward P/E n/a (No verified NDX forward P/E source this run).
4. Credit
HY OAS 323 bp as of 2026-10-15. 20-session change 53 bp.
5. Commodities & dollar
Brent 126.55 as of 2026-10-14, 20-session change −1.01%. DXY n/a (DXY not taken: no verified primary close).
Week ahead (ET)
Coming sessions: 2026-10-19 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct); 2026-10-20 08:30 Housing starts and building permits (Sep); 2026-10-20 10:00 Pending home sales (Sep); 2026-10-20 after close Netflix earnings; 2026-10-21 after close Tesla and Meta Platforms earnings (also IBM, Texas Instruments, Lam Research); 2026-10-22 08:30 Initial jobless claims; 2026-10-22 10:00 Conference Board Leading Economic Index (Sep); 2026-10-23 09:45 S&P Global flash PMIs (Oct); 2026-10-23 10:00 University of Michigan consumer sentiment, final (Oct); 2026-10-23 QQQ weekly options expiry.
Fundamental Scorecard
| Component | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ERP (EY − 10Y) | 0.17 | 0 |
| 10Y real | 2.74 | -1 |
| 10Y, 5-session change | -13 | 1 |
| NTM EPS revision, 4 weeks | n/a (FactSet 16.10 reports +1.5% for forward 12-month EPS since 30 Sep only (not a 4-week window); excluded) | excluded |
| HY OAS, 20 sessions | 53 | -1 |
| Fed, 3 meetings | n/a (CME fed-funds futures path not available for this session) | excluded |
| Brent, 20 sessions | -1.01 | 0 |
| Total | -1 |
Sources
- rates.breakeven10: FRED T10YIE, 16 Oct 2026
- rates.ust: U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve and Real Yield Curve, 16 Oct 2026