1. Rates & cost of capital
Treasury yields on Oct 15: 2Y 4.77%, 5Y 4.91%, 10Y 5.10%, 30Y 5.43%; 10Y real 2.78%; breakeven 2.32%; 2s10s 33 bp; 10Y −18 bp over five sessions.
2. Fed
Target range 3.75–4.00%. Market-implied path for the next three meetings: n/a. Speaker: Warsh (Oct 15, 23:30 ET; content not verified).
3. Valuation & equity risk premium
S&P 500 forward P/E 19.1 (FactSet, Oct 9); forward earnings yield 5.24% against a 5.10% 10-year — ERP +0.14 pp. Nasdaq-100 forward P/E n/a.
4. Earnings
PNC, U.S. Bancorp, BNY and Charles Schwab reported third-quarter results; BNY and U.S. Bancorp shares rose while Schwab fell. FactSet (Oct 9): Q3 EPS growth 29.6%; NTM EPS +1.94% over four weeks.
5. Credit
HY OAS 323 bp (Oct 15), +53 bp over 20 sessions; IG OAS 84 bp.
6. Commodities & dollar
Brent $126.55 (EIA spot, Oct 14), −1.01% over 20 sessions. DXY n/a.
7. Macro data
September PPI rose 1.3% month over month (forecast 0.5%), core 0.7% (forecast 0.3%). Retail sales rose 0.8%; the Empire State index jumped; initial jobless claims were 199,000, in line. Treasury yields declined on the day despite the inflation data.
Week ahead (ET)
- Oct 16: industrial production (Sep) 09:15; monthly OPEX (QQQ/SPX).
- Oct 20: n/a — calendar not verified in this run.
Fundamental Market Health: Neutral (0)
| Component | Reading | Score |
|---|---|---|
| ERP (EY − 10Y) | +0.14 pp | 0 |
| 10Y real | 2.78% | −2 |
| 10Y, 5-session change | −18 bp | +1 |
| NTM EPS revision, 4 weeks | +1.94% | +2 |
| HY OAS, 20 sessions | +53 bp | −1 |
| Fed, 3 meetings | n/a | excluded |
| Brent, 20 sessions | −1.01% | 0 |
| Total | 0 |
What Would Change the Regime
- 10Y real below 2.75% → component −1, total +1.
- ERP below zero → component −1, total −1.
- HY OAS 20-session change at or below +25 bp → component 0, total +1.
Sources
U.S. Treasury; FRED; FactSet Earnings Insight (Oct 9); PPI, retail sales, bank results — The Financial Current (Yahoo Finance/TheStreet, Seeking Alpha, company 8-K filings).