1. Session Dashboard
| Index | Close | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| QQQ | 737.93 | +0.19% |
| NDX | 30,339.33 | +0.21% |
| SPY | 764.20 | -0.18% |
| SPX | 7,670.84 | -0.17% |
| RSP | 209.50 | -0.11% |
| QQEW | 162.85 | +0.67% |
2. Trend
QQQ: SMA20 722.94 (+2.07%, +1.59 ATR), SMA50 714.31 (+3.31%, +2.50 ATR), SMA200 666.70 (+10.68%), EMA21 726.87 (+1.52%). Five-session slope: SMA20 +0.87%, SMA50 +0.47% — both rising. Swing high 748.35 (Sep 22), swing low 700.00 (Sep 16); all-time intraday high 748.65, record close 747.46 (Sep 22). Session range 735.34–740.58. SPY: SMA20 765.02 (-0.11%), SMA50 762.45 (+0.23%), SMA200 719.26 (+6.25%), EMA21 765.58 (-0.18%); SMA20 slope -0.02% (flat), SMA50 +0.24%. SPY is approaching a test of its medium-term trend while Nasdaq retains leadership.
3. Momentum & price volatility
RSI(14): QQQ 59.2, SPY 49.2. ATR(14): QQQ $9.46 (1.28%), SPY $6.56 (0.86%). Realized vol 10d/20d: QQQ 17.90% / 16.02%, SPY 12.05% / 11.03%.
4. Levels (QQQ)
Resistance: session high 740.58 clustered with the Sep 28 high 741.42, swing high / prior-week high 748.35 clustered with the all-time high 748.65, call wall 760 (model). Support: zero gamma 737.11 (model), session low 735.34, Sep 28 low 731.63 clustered with the 730 put wall (model), prior-week low 727.81 clustered with EMA21 726.87, SMA20 722.94, SMA50 714.31, swing low 700.00.
5. Breadth
Nasdaq-100 above 50d / 200d: 46.53% / 53.54% (prior 46.53% / 56.43%). S&P 500 above 20d / 50d / 200d: 26.95% / 24.75% / 42.89% (prior 26.97% / 27.23% / 44.14%). From Sep 29 these shares are our own calculation from component closes; prior values came from Barchart, so day-over-day comparisons are indicative. Advance/decline, up-volume share and the McClellan Oscillator are n/a (no verified closing source).
6. Concentration & relative strength
Over 20 sessions QQEW/QQQ is -4.20%, RSP/SPY -4.15% and QQQ/SPY +3.34%. On the day QQEW/QQQ gained 0.48% and QQQ/SPY 0.37%. Within the NDX top 10, dispersion stayed wide (META +3.24%, AAPL -2.66%).
7. Divergences
Price vs. breadth (QQQ 3.31% above its 50-day with only 46.53% of members above theirs; SPY above its 50-day with 24.75% of members); equal-weight vs. cap-weight over 20 sessions; price vs. volume (the advance came on 27.05mn shares vs 41.78mn on the Sep 28 decline). No price/momentum divergence.
| Horizon | QQQ | SPY | Breadth confirmation (QQQ / SPY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short term | Bullish | Neutral | n/a / not confirmed (26.95%) |
| Medium term | Bullish | Bullish | not confirmed (46.53%) / not confirmed (24.75%) |
| Long term | Bullish | Bullish | confirmed (53.54%) / not confirmed (42.89%) |
A moving-average slope is treated as flat when its 5-session change is within ±0.1%.
8. What Would Change the Regime
- If QQQ closes below its 20-day (722.94), then the QQQ short-term regime turns neutral.
- If SPY's 20-day starts falling by more than 0.1% over five sessions with price below it, then the SPY short-term regime turns bearish.
- If SPY closes below its 50-day (762.45), then the SPY medium-term regime turns neutral.
- If the share of Nasdaq-100 members above their 200-day drops below 50% (now 53.54%), then the long-term QQQ uptrend loses breadth confirmation.
Sources
- Nasdaq.com — daily price history for ETFs, indices and index components; Nasdaq-100 membership
- Cboe — delayed quotes and historical prices (close cross-check, all-time highs)
- Wikipedia — S&P 500 membership
- U.S. Treasury — daily par yield curve
- Convexa Daily volatility report — zero gamma, call wall, put wall (model)
Model-based estimates (gamma exposure, dealer positioning) are labeled as such and are not observed positions. This report describes market conditions and is not investment advice.