1. Index Dashboard
| Index | Close | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| QQQ | 739.77 | +0.25% |
| NDX | 30,408.50 | +0.23% |
| SPY | 762.63 | -0.21% |
| SPX | 7,651.54 | -0.25% |
| RSP | 208.02 | -0.71% |
| QQEW | 162.73 | -0.07% |
2. Trend
QQQ: SMA20 724.54 (+2.10%, +1.64 ATR), SMA50 714.93 (+3.47%, +2.67 ATR), SMA200 667.27 (+10.87%), EMA21 728.04 (+1.61%). Five-session slope: SMA20 +0.88%, SMA50 +0.49% — both rising. Swing high 748.35 (Sep 22), swing low 700.00 (Sep 16); all-time intraday high 748.65, record close 747.46. Session range 739.46–745.10 on 29.82mn shares (prior 27.05mn). SPY: SMA20 765.06 (-0.32%), SMA50 762.74 (-0.01%), SMA200 719.62 (+5.98%), EMA21 765.31 (-0.35%); SMA20 slope -0.03% (flat), SMA50 +0.24%. Volume 62.11mn (prior 36.91mn) on the last day of the month and quarter. The rally to 745.10 was sold in full; SPY is now testing its medium-term trend while Nasdaq is held up by megacaps.
3. Momentum & price volatility
RSI(14): QQQ 60.2 (prior 59.2), SPY 47.8 (prior 49.2). ATR(14): QQQ $9.29 (1.26%), SPY $6.61 (0.87%). Realized vol 10d/20d: QQQ 17.79% / 15.11%, SPY 11.81% / 10.77%.
4. Levels (QQQ)
Resistance: session high 745.10, swing high / prior-week high 748.35 clustered with the all-time high 748.65, call wall 760 (model). Support: the close sits on the 739.46–740.58 cluster (session low and Sep 29 high); below it zero gamma 737.18 (model), Sep 29 low 735.34, the 727.81–730.00 cluster (prior-week low, EMA21 728.04, put wall 730, model), SMA20 724.54, SMA50 714.93, swing low 700.00.
5. Breadth
Nasdaq-100 above 50d / 200d: 47.52% / 53.54% (prior 46.53% / 53.54%). S&P 500 above 20d / 50d / 200d: 22.75% / 20.96% / 40.28% (prior 26.95% / 24.75% / 42.89%). Both days are our own calculation from component closes and are directly comparable. Advance/decline, up-volume share and the McClellan Oscillator are n/a (no verified closing source). S&P 500 participation has deteriorated for a second straight session; Nasdaq-100 is stable but its advance rests on the largest names.
6. Concentration & relative strength
On the day RSP/SPY fell 0.50% and QQEW/QQQ 0.32%, while QQQ/SPY gained 0.46%. Over 20 sessions: RSP/SPY -4.50%, QQEW/QQQ -3.92%, QQQ/SPY +4.42%. Seven of the NDX top 10 rose (AAPL +1.10%, SPCX +1.09%, AMZN +1.01%, GOOGL +0.93%); META (-1.84%) and AVGO (-1.10%) declined.
7. Divergences
Price vs. breadth (QQQ 3.47% above its 50-day with 47.52% of members above theirs; SPY at its 50-day with 20.96% of members above); equal-weight vs. cap-weight (RSP -0.71% vs SPY -0.21%, QQEW -0.07% vs QQQ +0.25%). No price/volume divergence — the advance came on higher volume — though the close at the session low weakens its quality. No price/momentum divergence.
| Horizon | QQQ | SPY | Breadth confirmation (QQQ / SPY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short term | Bullish | Neutral | n/a / not confirmed (22.75%) |
| Medium term | Bullish | Neutral | not confirmed (47.52%) / not confirmed (20.96%) |
| Long term | Bullish | Bullish | confirmed (53.54%) / not confirmed (40.28%) |
A moving-average slope is treated as flat when its 5-session change is within ±0.1%.
8. What Would Change the Regime
- If QQQ closes below its 20-day (724.54), then the QQQ short-term regime turns neutral.
- If SPY closes back above its rising 50-day (762.74), then the SPY medium-term regime returns to bullish.
- If SPY's 20-day starts falling by more than 0.1% over five sessions with price below it, then the SPY short-term regime turns bearish.
- If the share of Nasdaq-100 members above their 200-day drops below 50% (now 53.54%), then the long-term QQQ uptrend loses breadth confirmation.
Sources
- Nasdaq.com — daily price history for ETFs, indices and index components; Nasdaq-100 membership
- Cboe — delayed quotes (close cross-check), SPX history
- U.S. Treasury — daily par yield curve
- Investrade Market Review, Sep 30, 2026
Model-based estimates (gamma exposure, dealer positioning) are labeled as such and are not observed positions. This report describes market conditions and is not investment advice.