Technical Report for October 1, 2026

1. Index Dashboard

2. Trend

QQQ: SMA20 726.18 (+2.18%, +1.72 ATR), SMA50 715.66 (+3.68%, +2.86 ATR), SMA200 667.91 (+11.10%), EMA21 729.31 (+1.74%). Five-session slope: SMA20 +0.90%, SMA50 +0.53% — both rising. Swing high 748.35 (Sep 22); the latest confirmed swing low is 731.63 (Sep 28); all-time intraday high 748.65, record close 747.46. Session range 736.25–744.67 on 35.73mn shares (prior 29.82mn). SPY: SMA20 765.00 (-0.13%), SMA50 763.07 (+0.12%), SMA200 720.03 (+6.11%), EMA21 765.19 (-0.16%); SMA20 slope -0.04% (flat), SMA50 +0.25%. Range 758.79–765.65 on 47.71mn shares (prior 62.11mn). The first new swing low since mid-September (731.63 vs 700.00) lifts the structural floor for QQQ and keeps the sequence of higher lows intact; SPY is oscillating around its medium-term average without direction.

3. Momentum & price volatility

RSI(14): QQQ 61.5 (prior 60.2), SPY 49.2 (prior 47.8). ATR(14): QQQ $9.23 (1.24%), SPY $6.63 (0.87%). Realized vol 10d/20d: QQQ 16.41% / 15.11%, SPY 10.41% / 10.67%.

4. Levels (QQQ)

Resistance: the 744.67–745.10 double top of the last two sessions, the 748.35–748.65 record zone (swing high / prior-week high and all-time high), call wall 760 (model). Support: the 739.46–740.77 cluster just below the close (Sep 30 low and zero gamma, model), the Oct 1 low 736.25, then the 727.81–731.63 zone (prior-week low, EMA21 729.31, put wall 730 (model), swing low 731.63), SMA20 726.18, SMA50 715.66.

5. Breadth

Nasdaq-100 above 50d / 200d: 44.55% / 52.53% (prior 47.52% / 53.54%). S&P 500 above 20d / 50d / 200d: 25.15% / 22.95% / 40.88% (prior 22.75% / 20.96% / 40.28%). Both days are our own calculation from component closes and are directly comparable. Advance/decline, up-volume share and the McClellan Oscillator are n/a (no verified closing source). Broad-market participation improved for the first time in three sessions, from a very low base; in the Nasdaq-100 some members slipped below their 50-day even as the index rose, so the advance rests on a minority of names.

6. Concentration & relative strength

On the day RSP/SPY rose 0.29%, QQEW/QQQ 0.03% and QQQ/SPY 0.13%. Over 20 sessions: RSP/SPY -4.25%, QQEW/QQQ -3.48%, QQQ/SPY +4.78%. An unusual session for Nasdaq: the index rose while eight of the ten largest names fell (AVGO -2.15%, SPCX -1.85%, GOOGL -1.70%, AAPL -0.81%); only NVDA (+1.09%) and META (+0.10%) gained. The day's advance came from outside the top 10.

7. Divergences

Price vs. breadth (QQQ +0.31% while the share of Nasdaq-100 members above their 50-day fell to 44.55%, -2.97 pp). Equal-weight vs. cap-weight: on the day in favor of broader participation (RSP +0.47% vs SPY +0.18%), over 20 sessions the equal-weight lag persists (-4.25% and -3.48%). No price/volume divergence — the advance came on higher volume with a close in the upper half of the range. No price/momentum divergence.

A moving-average slope is treated as flat when its 5-session change is within ±0.1%.

8. What Would Change the Regime

• If QQQ closes below its 20-day (726.18), then the QQQ short-term regime turns neutral.
• If SPY closes back below its 50-day (763.07, 0.12% under the close), then the SPY medium-term regime returns to neutral.
• If SPY closes above its 20-day (765.00) and the 5-session slope of that average exceeds +0.1%, then the SPY short-term regime turns bullish.
• If the share of Nasdaq-100 members above their 200-day drops below 50% (now 52.53%), then the long-term QQQ uptrend loses breadth confirmation.

Sources

1. Nasdaq.com — daily price history for ETFs, indices and index components; Nasdaq-100 membership
2. Cboe — delayed quotes (close cross-check), SPX history
3. U.S. Treasury — daily par yield curve
4. Investrade Market Review, Oct 1, 2026

Model-based estimates (gamma exposure, dealer positioning) are labeled as such and are not observed positions. This report describes market conditions and is not investment advice.