Technical Report for October 2, 2026

1. Index Dashboard

2. Trend

QQQ: SMA20 727.78 (+3.00%, +2.30 ATR), SMA50 716.82 (+4.57%, +3.46 ATR), SMA200 668.60 (+12.11%), EMA21 731.15 (+2.52%). Five-session slope: SMA20 +0.96%, SMA50 +0.59% — both rising. All-time intraday high 754.54 and record close 749.58 (both Oct 2); prior swing high 748.35 (Sep 22), latest confirmed swing low 731.63 (Sep 28). Session range 747.53–754.54 on 34.50mn shares (prior 35.73mn). SPY: SMA20 764.83 (+0.63%), SMA50 763.70 (+0.78%), SMA200 720.48 (+6.82%), EMA21 765.60 (+0.53%); SMA20 slope -0.07% (flat), SMA50 +0.28%. Range 767.14–772.65 on 46.34mn shares (prior 47.71mn); SPY remains 1.06% below its record close of 777.88. QQQ broke out of its consolidation below the Sep 22 high; the trend is accelerating but stretching (2.30 ATR above the 20-day), and the fade from the high on lower volume leaves the breakout unconfirmed.

3. Momentum & price volatility

RSI(14): QQQ 65.4 (prior 61.5), SPY 54.5 (prior 49.2). ATR(14): QQQ $9.47 (1.26%), SPY $6.77 (0.88%). Realized vol 10d/20d: QQQ 16.70% / 14.98%, SPY 10.96% / 10.32%.

4. Levels (QQQ)

Resistance: the 754.54 all-time high, call wall 760 (model). Support: the 747.53–748.35 cluster (Oct 2 low and former swing high), the Oct 1 high 744.67, zero gamma 742.15 (model), the Oct 1 low 736.25, the 731.15–731.63 cluster (EMA21 and swing low), the 727.78–727.81 cluster (SMA20 and the Sep 21–25 low), put wall 725 (model), SMA50 716.82. Former resistance at 748.35 is now the nearest support; holding it confirms the breakout.

5. Breadth

Nasdaq-100 above 50d / 200d: 43.56% / 57.58% (prior 44.55% / 52.53%). S&P 500 above 20d / 50d / 200d: 26.55% / 24.75% / 42.28% (prior 25.15% / 22.95% / 40.88%). Both days are our own calculation from component closes and are directly comparable. Advance/decline, up-volume share and the McClellan Oscillator are n/a (no verified closing source). The QQQ record came with a minority of members above their 50-day — classic narrow leadership — while long-term breadth improved to 57.58% above the 200-day. S&P 500 participation rose for a second session, from a low base.

6. Concentration & relative strength

On the day RSP/SPY fell 0.39%, QQEW/QQQ 0.77%, while QQQ/SPY rose 0.28%. Over 20 sessions: RSP/SPY -4.25%, QQEW/QQQ -3.57%, QQQ/SPY +4.93%. Megacap leadership returned after a one-day pause: SPCX +7.35%, TSLA +4.65% (Q3 deliveries), AVGO +3.35%, GOOGL +1.56%, NVDA +1.34%, AMZN +1.33%, AAPL +1.02%, MSFT +0.92%, META +0.30%.

7. Divergences

Price vs. breadth (record QQQ close while the share of Nasdaq-100 members above their 50-day fell to 43.56%). Equal-weight vs. cap-weight (QQEW +0.24% vs QQQ +1.02%, RSP +0.35% vs SPY +0.74%; 20-session lag -3.57% and -4.25%). Price vs. volume: the breakout came on lower volume than the prior session (34.50mn vs 35.73mn) — weak confirmation. No price/momentum divergence: RSI made a new high with price.

A moving-average slope is treated as flat when its 5-session change is within ±0.1%.

8. What Would Change the Regime

• If QQQ closes below 747.53 (Oct 2 low) and 748.35, then the record breakout is negated; the regime itself changes only on a close below the 20-day (727.78, -2.91%).
• If the 5-session slope of SPY's 20-day rises above +0.1% with price above it, then the SPY short-term regime turns bullish.
• If SPY closes below its 50-day (763.70, -0.78%), then the SPY medium-term regime returns to neutral.
• If the share of Nasdaq-100 members above their 50-day rises above 50% (now 43.56%), then the medium-term QQQ uptrend gains breadth confirmation.

Sources

1. Nasdaq.com — daily price history for ETFs, indices and index components; Nasdaq-100 membership
2. Cboe — delayed quotes (close cross-check), SPX history
3. U.S. Treasury — daily par yield curve
4. Investrade Market Review, Oct 2, 2026

Model-based estimates (gamma exposure, dealer positioning) are labeled as such and are not observed positions. This report describes market conditions and is not investment advice.