1. Key Metrics
| Index | Close | Chg |
|---|---|---|
| QQQ | 756.20 | +0.88% |
| NDX | 31,076.44 | +0.87% |
| SPY | 774.83 | +0.67% |
| SPX | 7,773.95 | +0.66% |
| RSP | 211.12 | +0.66% |
| QQEW | 165.61 | +1.19% |
2. Trend
QQQ: SMA20 729.64 (+3.64%, +2.84 ATR), SMA50 718.26 (+5.28%, +4.06 ATR), SMA200 669.33 (+12.98%), EMA21 733.43 (+3.10%). Five-session slope: SMA20 +1.07%, SMA50 +0.67% — both rising, faster than on Friday (SMA20 +1.07% vs +0.96%). All-time intraday high 756.92 and record close 756.20 (both Oct 5); the last confirmed swing high (±3 bars) is 748.35 (Sep 22) and the swing low 731.63 (Sep 28); the Oct 2 and Oct 5 highs are not yet confirmed swings. Session range 749.08–756.92, close 0.10% below the high, on 25.60mn shares (prior 34.50mn). SPY: SMA20 765.06 (+1.28%), SMA50 764.42 (+1.36%), SMA200 720.96 (+7.47%), EMA21 766.43 (+1.10%); SMA20 slope -0.01% (flat), SMA50 +0.32%. Range 769.63–776.61 on 44.84mn shares (prior 46.34mn); SPY closed at its 775.14 swing high and 0.39% below its 777.88 record close. The QQQ trend is accelerating and stretched (2.84 ATR above the 20-day, prior 2.30) with no reversal signals; SPY's flat 20-day keeps its short-term horizon formally neutral.
3. Momentum & price volatility
RSI(14): QQQ 68.5 (prior 65.4), one step from the 70 overbought threshold; SPY 58.8 (prior 54.5). ATR(14): QQQ $9.35 (1.24%), SPY $6.79 (0.88%). Realized vol 10d/20d: QQQ 11.00% / 15.16%, SPY 8.33% / 10.51% — the advance has been smooth.
4. Levels (QQQ)
Resistance: the 756.92 all-time high, call wall 760 (model, +0.50%). Support: the 747.53–749.08 cluster (Oct 2 low, former 748.35 swing high, Oct 5 low; 0.21% wide), zero gamma 744.98 (model), the 731.63–733.43 cluster (swing low and EMA21), the 729.64–731.63 cluster (SMA20 and swing low), put wall 725 (model), SMA50 718.26. The breakout is confirmed by a second session: the former resistance zone is now support, and modeled zero gamma has risen almost to it. Below 747.53 there are no dense levels until the 729.64–733.43 area.
5. Breadth
Nasdaq-100 above 50d / 200d: 48.51% / 57.58% (prior 43.56% / 57.58%). S&P 500 above 20d / 50d / 200d: 34.73% / 26.95% / 43.29% (prior 26.55% / 24.75% / 42.28%). Both days are our own calculation from component closes and are directly comparable. Advance/decline, up-volume share and the McClellan Oscillator are n/a (no verified closing source). Nasdaq-100 breadth improved markedly (+4.95 pp above the 50-day) and is now 1.5 pp short of confirming the medium-term regime. S&P 500 participation rose for a third session, most on the short horizon (+8.18 pp above the 20-day), but from a low base.
6. Concentration & relative strength
On the day RSP/SPY -0.01%, QQEW/QQQ +0.31%, QQQ/SPY +0.21%. Over 5 sessions: -0.54%, -0.29%, +1.45%; over 20 sessions: -4.18%, -2.42%, +4.55%. Participation inside the Nasdaq-100 broadened on the day, though equal-weight still lags by 2.42% over 20 sessions. NDX top 10: SPCX +7.63%, TSLA +2.20%, NVDA +2.12%, AVGO +2.08%, META +1.90%, MSFT +1.48%, GOOGL +0.86%, AMZN -0.05%, AAPL -0.24%.
7. Divergences
Price vs. volume: a second record on falling volume (25.60mn vs 34.50mn). Price vs. breadth: a record QQQ close with fewer than half of Nasdaq-100 members above their 50-day (48.51%), though the gap is closing. Equal-weight vs. cap-weight: over 20 sessions QQEW/QQQ -2.42% and RSP/SPY -4.18%; no daily divergence in the Nasdaq-100 (QQEW outperformed). No price/momentum divergence: RSI made a new high with price.
| Horizon | QQQ | SPY | Breadth confirmation (QQQ / SPY) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short term | Bullish | Neutral | n/a / not confirmed (34.73%) |
| Medium term | Bullish | Bullish | not confirmed (48.51%) / not confirmed (26.95%) |
| Long term | Bullish | Bullish | confirmed (57.58%) / not confirmed (43.29%) |
A moving-average slope is treated as flat when its 5-session change is within ±0.1%.
8. What Would Change the Regime
- If QQQ closes below the 747.53–749.08 cluster, then the record breakout is called into question; the regime itself changes only on a close below the 20-day (729.64, -3.51%).
- If the share of Nasdaq-100 members above their 50-day rises above 50% (now 48.51%), then the medium-term QQQ uptrend gains breadth confirmation.
- If the 5-session slope of SPY's 20-day rises above +0.1% with price above it, then the SPY short-term regime turns bullish.
- If SPY closes below its 50-day (764.42, -1.34%), then the SPY medium-term regime returns to neutral.
Sources
- Nasdaq.com — daily price history for ETFs, indices and components; Nasdaq-100 membership
- Cboe — delayed quotes (close cross-check), SPX history
- U.S. Treasury — daily par yield curve
- Convexa Daily volatility report — zero gamma, call wall, put wall (model)
Model-based estimates (gamma exposure, dealer positioning) are labeled as such and are not observed positions. This report describes market conditions and is not investment advice.