1. Key Metrics
| Instrument | Close | Chg | Prior |
|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ | 747.58 | −1.34% | 757.73 |
| Nasdaq-100 | 30,725.81 | −1.39% | 31,160.08 |
| SPY | 773.93 | −0.42% | 777.22 |
| S&P 500 | 7,765.36 | −0.47% | 7,801.77 |
| RSP | 211.87 | +0.60% | 210.60 |
| QQEW | 162.87 | −1.05% | 164.59 |
QQQ volume was 49.69mn shares versus 25.47mn the prior session; SPY 40.43mn versus 30.99mn. QQQ and SPY closes match across Nasdaq.com and Cboe to the cent. VIX 15.41 and VXN 21.98 are covered in the volatility report.
2. Trend
| QQQ | Value | Price vs. | In ATR | 5-session slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | 735.72 | +1.61% | 1.25 | rising, +1.31% |
| SMA 50 | 723.17 | +3.38% | 2.58 | rising, +1.05% |
| SMA 200 | 671.52 | +11.33% | 8.04 | — |
| EMA 21 | 738.70 | +1.20% | 0.94 | — |
| SPY | Value | Price vs. | In ATR | 5-session slope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMA 20 | 767.26 | +0.87% | 1.00 | rising, +0.30% |
| SMA 50 | 766.84 | +0.92% | 1.06 | rising, +0.49% |
| SMA 200 | 722.47 | +7.12% | 7.68 | — |
| EMA 21 | 768.96 | +0.65% | 0.74 | — |
Swing structure: QQQ's last significant high is 748.35 (Sep 22) and low 731.63 (Sep 28); SPY 775.14 (Sep 22) and 758.79 (Oct 1). All-time highs: QQQ 762.86 intraday and 759.66 on a closing basis (Oct 6); SPY 781.62 and 779.09. QQQ's lead over its 20-day shrank to 1.61% from 3.26% — 1.25 ATR — so the overextension has been worked off. The close sits 0.77 below the September 22 swing high: the breakout from the September range is now being tested.
3. Momentum & price volatility
RSI(14): QQQ 58.83 (prior 68.01), SPY 56.09 (prior 59.82). ATR(14): QQQ $9.46 (1.26%; prior $9.07), SPY $6.70 (0.87%; prior $6.69). Realized volatility: QQQ 12.27% / 15.47% (10/20 sessions), SPY 8.22% / 10.16%. QQQ RSI lost more than 9 points in one session and moved from the 70 area toward neutral — momentum is cooling with price, with no divergence.
4. Levels
Resistance: 762.86 (all-time high), 760 (call wall, model), 758.30 / 751.75 (prior-session high / low), and a 753.84–754.54 cluster (positive-gamma threshold, model; prior-week high). Under test: the 748.35–750.09 cluster (September 22 swing high; zero gamma, model). Support: 746.34 (negative-gamma threshold, model), 743.23 (session low), 738.70 / 735.72 (EMA 21 / SMA 20), 731.63 (Sep 28 swing low = prior-week low), 723.17 (SMA 50) and 700 (put wall, model). Gamma levels are estimates from the full QQQ chain under a dealers-long-calls / short-puts assumption, not observed positions.
5. Breadth
| Share of members above SMA | Oct 8 | Oct 7 |
|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq-100 — SMA 50 | 47.0% | 51.0% |
| Nasdaq-100 — SMA 200 | 60.2% | 60.2% |
| S&P 500 — SMA 20 | 48.8% | 37.6% |
| S&P 500 — SMA 50 | 32.0% | 28.6% |
| S&P 500 — SMA 200 | 46.59% | 44.98% |
NYSE/Nasdaq advance/decline, up-volume share and the McClellan Oscillator are n/a (Barchart/WSJ block cloud requests; media carry only intraday ratios). S&P 500 breadth improved on every horizon while the index fell — the share above the 20-day rose 11.2 points. Nasdaq-100 breadth deteriorated: the selling was concentrated in the largest technology names.
6. Concentration & relative strength
| Ratio | Value | 1 session | 5 sessions | 20 sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RSP / SPY | 0.27376 | +1.03% | +0.07% | −2.68% |
| QQEW / QQQ | 0.21786 | +0.30% | −0.99% | −1.44% |
| QQQ / SPY | 0.96595 | −0.92% | −0.55% | +3.29% |
Nasdaq-100 top 10: AVGO −4.35%, SPCX −4.19%, NVDA −2.94%, AMZN −2.25%, MSFT −1.35%, TSLA −0.74%, GOOG −0.72%, GOOGL −0.63%, META −0.06%; only AAPL rose (+1.11%). A sharp reversal in concentration: RSP/SPY +1.03% in one session. Nasdaq relative strength remains positive over 20 sessions (+3.29%) but has turned negative over five. Cross-market: the 10-year yield fell 6 bp to 5.22%, which did not help long-duration tech; DXY is n/a; oil rose on Iran-related risks (media; details in the fundamental report).
7. Divergences
- Equal-weight vs. cap-weight: RSP +0.60% while SPY −0.42%; QQEW (−1.05%) fell less than QQQ (−1.34%).
- Price vs. breadth: the S&P 500 declined while the shares of members above their 20-, 50- and 200-day averages rose.
- Price vs. volume: not a divergence but confirmation of selling — QQQ volume nearly doubled.
8. Regime
| Horizon | QQQ | SPY | Breadth confirmation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short term (SMA 20) | Bullish | Bullish | QQQ n/a; SPY not confirmed (48.8%) |
| Medium term (SMA 50) | Bullish | Bullish | QQQ not confirmed (47.0%); SPY not confirmed (32.0%) |
| Long term (SMA 200) | Bullish | Bullish | QQQ confirmed (60.2%); SPY not confirmed (46.59%) |
Price is above the 20-, 50- and 200-day averages and both shorter averages are rising (flat threshold ±0.1% over five sessions). Day-over-day change: the medium-term QQQ regime lost breadth confirmation.
What Would Change the Regime
- If QQQ closes below its 20-day (735.72), then the short-term regime turns Neutral.
- If QQQ closes below 731.63 (the Sep 28 swing low), then the breakout from the September range is negated, with the 50-day (723.17) as the next support.
- If the share of Nasdaq-100 members above their 50-day returns above 50%, then the medium-term QQQ regime is again confirmed by breadth.
- If SPY closes below its 50-day (766.84), then the medium-term SPY regime turns Neutral.
Sources
- Nasdaq.com historical API — daily closes for ETFs, indices and members; SMA, EMA, RSI, ATR, realized volatility and breadth computed in-house
- Cboe — QQQ and SPY close cross-check, S&P 500; gamma levels from the volatility report
- Wikipedia — S&P 500 membership; Nasdaq-100 membership — api.nasdaq.com
- U.S. Treasury — 10-year yield
Model-based estimates are labeled as such. This report describes market conditions and is not investment advice.