Skip to content
Home/Technical Analysis/October 6, 2026
CONVEXA · DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT

Technical Report for October 6, 2026

For the trading session ended October 6, 2026

1. Key Metrics

InstrumentCloseChgPriorHigh / Low
QQQ759.66+0.46%756.20762.86 / 759.10
NDX31,224.69+0.48%31,076.4431,361.37 / 31,208.20
SPY779.09+0.55%774.83781.62 / 777.96
SPX7,818.93+0.58%7,773.957,844.52 / 7,805.96
RSP212.33+0.57%211.12212.93 / 211.54
QQEW165.74+0.08%165.61166.64 / 165.40

QQQ volume was 26.51mn shares (prior 25.60mn, +3.6%); SPY 36.05mn (prior 44.84mn, −19.6%). NDX top 10: AVGO +3.67%, AMZN +1.95%, MSFT +0.78%, TSLA +0.51%, SPCX +0.49%, GOOGL +0.35%, AAPL +0.22%, GOOG +0.22%, NVDA +0.14%, META −0.41%. VIX 15.01 (−0.51) and VXN 21.15 (−0.55) — see the volatility report.

2. Trend

QQQ: SMA 20 731.71 (price +3.82%, 3.05 ATR; rising, +1.21% over 5 sessions), SMA 50 719.81 (+5.54%, 4.35 ATR; rising, +0.77%), SMA 200 670.12 (+13.36%, 9.78 ATR), EMA 21 735.82 (+3.24%). SPY: SMA 20 765.72 (+1.75%; flat, +0.09%), SMA 50 765.22 (+1.81%; rising, +0.36%), SMA 200 721.50 (+7.98%), EMA 21 767.59. Swings (±3 bars): QQQ high 748.35 (Sep 22), low 731.63 (Sep 28); SPY high 775.14 (Sep 22), low 758.79 (Oct 1). Read: the QQQ trend is accelerating — the 20-day slope rose to +1.21% from +1.07% — and the distance to the 20-day now exceeds three ATRs, a stretched position in which a pullback to the EMA 21 (735.82) would not break the trend. The SPY 20-day is still flat (+0.09% against the ±0.1% threshold), so the S&P 500 short-term regime stays Neutral, 0.01 pp from the Rising threshold.

3. Momentum & price volatility

RSI(14): QQQ 69.93 (prior 68.45), SPY 62.00 (prior 58.83). ATR(14): QQQ $9.16 (1.21%; prior 9.35), SPY $6.79 (0.87%). Realized volatility: QQQ 10.59% (10d) and 15.12% (20d); SPY 8.74% and 10.43%. RSI is a step from overbought but confirms price — a new price high came with a new momentum high. Falling ATR and RV10 during the advance describe a smooth rather than impulsive rise.

4. Levels

Resistance: all-time high 762.86 (+0.42%) and the 760 call wall (model, +0.04%), where the close stopped. Support: the open gap 759.10 / 756.92 (−0.07% / −0.36%); prior-week high 754.54 (−0.67%); cluster 749.08 / 748.35 / 747.25 (Oct 5 low, Sep 22 swing high, zero gamma — model; −1.39% to −1.63%); EMA 21 735.82; cluster 731.71 / 731.63 (SMA 20, Sep 28 swing low; −3.7%); put wall 725 (model, −4.56%). The 747.25–749.08 cluster coincides with the edge of positive gamma.

5. Breadth

Nasdaq-100: above 50-day 48.51% (prior 48.51%), above 200-day 62.63% (prior 57.58%). S&P 500: above 20-day 43.40% (prior 34.73%), above 50-day 29.60% (prior 26.95%), above 200-day 46.59% (prior 43.29%). Own calculation from component daily closes (NDX 101, S&P 500 503). NYSE/Nasdaq advance-decline, up-volume share and McClellan: n/a (Barchart/WSJ block cloud requests). The Russell 2000 fell 0.57%. S&P 500 participation widened for a second day (+8.7 pp above the 20-day), but all three shares remain below 50%. In the Nasdaq-100 the record was made by a narrow group: the 50-day share did not move.

6. Concentration & relative strength

RSP/SPY: +0.02% on the day, −0.59% over 5 sessions, −3.68% over 20. QQEW/QQQ: −0.38%, −1.14%, −1.50%. QQQ/SPY: −0.09%, +0.98%, +3.97%. Monday's broadening in the Nasdaq-100 did not continue; the largest names — AVGO and AMZN — carried the index. On the day the S&P 500 slightly outperformed, but Nasdaq leadership holds on a one-month horizon.

7. Divergences

  • Price vs breadth (NDX): record QQQ with only 48.51% of members above their 50-day.
  • Equal-weight vs cap-weight: QQEW +0.08% vs QQQ +0.46%; QQEW/QQQ −1.14% over five sessions.
  • Price vs momentum and volume: confirmation — RSI made a new high with price and QQQ volume rose 3.6%.

8. Regime

HorizonQQQSPYBreadth confirmation
Short termBullishNeutralQQQ n/a; SPY not confirmed (43.40%)
Medium termBullishBullishNot confirmed (NDX 48.51%; S&P 29.60%)
Long termBullishBullishQQQ confirmed (62.63%); SPY not confirmed (46.59%)

What Would Change the Regime

  • If QQQ closes below 747.25–749.08, then the September 22 breakout is in question and modeled gamma turns transitional.
  • If the SPY 20-day rises more than 0.1% over five sessions with price above it, then the SPY short-term regime turns Bullish.
  • If the share of Nasdaq-100 members above their 50-day rises above 50%, then the QQQ medium-term regime is confirmed by breadth.
  • If QQQ closes below its 20-day (731.71), then the short-term regime turns Neutral.

Sources

  1. Nasdaq.com historical API — daily closes for QQQ, SPY, RSP, QQEW, NDX and index members; averages, RSI, ATR, RV and breadth are own calculations
  2. Cboe — QQQ and SPY close cross-check (exact match), SPX history
  3. Wikipedia — S&P 500 membership; Nasdaq.com — Nasdaq-100 membership
  4. TheStreet — Oct 6 session wrap (Russell 2000)
  5. Gamma levels — Convexa Daily volatility report (model)

Model-based levels (zero gamma, call and put walls) are labeled as such. This report describes market conditions and is not investment advice.